The Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers will do battle on ESPN+ early on Thursday afternoon. Although both teams slot in well below .500 and aren’t competing for anything this year, having baseball to watch is better than not having baseball to watch, right? Let’s dive into today’s Athletics-Tigers odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Athletics-Tigers Betting Pick & Prediction: Bet the Total on Thursday
Athletics-Tigers Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Athletics: +152 | Tigers: -180
Over 8: -110 | Under 8: -110
I’m not going to roast these teams too much for being terrible. The Oakland Athletics are the definition of getting what you pay for — they rank 30th in payroll and 30th in winning percentage. The Detroit Tigers rank 19th in payroll and 23rd in winning percentage. The A’s will trot out LHP Hogan Harris against the Tigers’ RHP Michael Lorenzen. Harris owns a 5.17 ERA and 4.28 xERA, which aren’t great but aren’t terrible. He has produced those numbers over the course of three starts, five relief appearances and 38.1 innings pitched. Lorenzen owns a 4.28 ERA and 4.70 xERA across 14 starts and 82 innings pitched.
Although these teams are close to even on the mound, the Tigers have a leg up on offense. Detroit ranks 24th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .313. Oakland ranks 30th at .293. Both teams have failed to meet those expectations, however, as their wOBA slot in at .294 and .288, respectively. The Tigers should also benefit from the matchup against Harris, as their .648 overall OPS ticks up to .668 against LHPs. Oakland’s .667 overall OPS dips to .659 against RHPs.
Despite both of these offenses struggling to get runs across the plate, they have been profitable for over bettors. The Athletics are 44-38-5 to the over and the Tigers are 46-36-2. Oakland may rank 30th in runs per game (3.54), and Detroit may rank 28th (3.89), but the two teams’ struggling pitching staffs have led them to rank first (6.25) and eighth (4.81) in runs allowed per game. It helps that Detroit is 24-16 to the over at home, while Oakland is 24-16-3 to the over on the road.
The opening total for Thursday afternoon’s meeting between the Athletics and Tigers was set to 8.5. Detroit has gone 30-25-2 to the over with a total of between 8 and 9; Oakland has gone 30-22-3 to the over with a total in that range. While it’s unclear who will end up crossing the plate, both offenses should benefit from positive regression at some point this season and will get favorable pitchers to plate runs against. Thursday’s meeting also marks the conclusion of this series, meaning both squads will have likely chewed through a few of their quality relievers.
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Best Athletics-Tigers MLB Pick: Over 8.5 -102 at FanDuel
