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Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out Parlay Builder!
Best Home Run Picks Today: FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Manny Machado at FanDuel
We have to pick on RHP Rich Hill (6-7) tonight. The 43-year-old veteran has given up 11 home runs on 11.8 xHR this season. Although most of those came back in April, Hill has still given up plenty of hard-hit balls — he ranks in the 16th percentile for barrel percentage and in the 35th for hard-hit percentage.
So which member of the San Diego Padres should we target on Dinger Tuesday? Hill’s 11 home runs allowed have all gone to right-handed batters, so we can rule out Juan Soto. Likewise, Fernando Tatis Jr. slots in at odds of +265 (27.4), so he’s out, too. Nelson Cruz and Gary Sanchez could go yard, but they’re not who I want exposure to.
Let’s ride with Manny Machado at +350 (22.2%). The price isn’t great, but Machado has hit two home runs in nine career at-bats against Hill. He has four total hits and just one strikeout. Although Machado has struggled this season, he still ranks third on the Padres in xHR at nine. PNC Park isn’t the best stadium for right-handed power, but Hill has still managed to surrender seven home runs here.
Dinger Tuesday Pick: Manny Machado +350 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: James Outman at FanDuel
There’s no way I’m leaving a game at Coors Field off my card. Although most of the home run odds are priced down appropriately — four players slot in at under +300 (25%) — there is still value to be found in the game with the slate’s highest total.
The Rockies will start RHP Connor Seabold (1-3), who has allowed 11 home runs and 9.4 xHR in just 56.2 innings pitched this year, good for 1.5 xHR/9. Seven of those home runs went to left-handed batters. Four came in his last start against the Atlanta Braves.
The Dodgers have a surplus of lefties who could take Seabold yard. Freddie Freeman is an obvious candidate, but at odds of +280 (26.3%), bettors should on him. Instead, give me James Outman at +370 (21.3%). The 26-year-old outfielder has a triple in two at-bats against Seabold. He’ll cost you +294 (25.4%) to hit a home run at Pinnacle.
Dinger Tuesday Pick: James Outman +370 at FanDuel
