We have MLB action all Wednesday long, but only two games are available to national audiences: Orioles-Blue Jays and Athletics-Dodgers. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Freddie Freeman.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Freddie Freeman, Ryan Mountcastle
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Ryan Mountcastle at BetMGM
The Toronto Blue Jays will start LHP Yusei Kikuchi against the Baltimore Orioles tonight, and if the past is prologue, we can expect plenty of scoring from the O’s. Baltimore is hitting a cumulative .308 against Kikuchi with a 1.070 OPS. Five different batters have gone yard against Kikuchi, but none stand out more than Ryan Mountcastle, who owns four home runs on five hits (all of which went for extra bases) in 10 at-bats against him.
For whatever reason, the books aren’t treating Mountcastle with nearly enough respect. He sits at -105 (51.2%) via BetMGM just to record multiple bases tonight. OddsShopper Insider Access got this prop at +100 (50%). Mountcastle has been absolutely lethal in this series against Toronto with five hits, four extra-base hits and five RBIs in eight plate appearances. He has improved his batting average from .240 to .252 and his OPS from .720 to .752 over the last two games.
While Mountcastle will regress to the mean at some point, expecting him to do so tonight is foolish. He has owned LHPs this year and is hitting .337 against them with 17 extra-base hits and eight home runs in just 95 at-bats. Kikuchi has struggled against RHBs like Mountcastle himself, allowing 30 extra-base hits and 17 home runs to them. Mountcastle ranks second on the Orioles in expected weighted on-base average at .360, which slots in far above his .318 wOBA, so there’s still plenty of room for him to stay hot without him getting over his skis.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 for 0.75 Units at BetMGM
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics | 10:10 p.m. ET on MLB TV
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at BetMGM
Today’s free game of the day on MLB TV, Dodgers-Athletics, is also one of the slate’s biggest mismatches. The elite L.A. offense will get a chance against Oakland’s awful pitching staff. The A’s will start LHP Hogan Harris this evening. Harris owns a dismal 6.07 ERA and a still-bad 4.58 xERA. His 7.15 ERA on the road is also disastrous. He has rarely lined up against LHBs like Freddie Freeman this year because other teams usually platoon against him, but he has allowed the LHBs he faces to hit .256 with 10 hits and two extra-base hits in 39 at-bats.
Unlike most LHBs, Freeman feasts against same-handed pitchers, and he is generally an elite all-around batter. He is hitting .325 against them this year with 41 hits, 20 extra-base hits and 11 home runs. He leads the Dodgers in xwOBA at .420, which ranks sixth overall and in the 98th percentile. His .326 xBA also ranks in the 99th percentile. Freeman will benefit from a steady 11 mph wind blowing out through right field, which, when you look at his spray chart, could prove helpful more helpful to him than most.
The 26-year-old Harris is more of a reliever than a starter, so don’t be surprised to see him get pulled extra early if the Dodgers shell him in the first few innings. Harris failed to make it five innings in three of his four starts last month. But if Harris does make an early exit, Freeman will get plenty of chances to do damage against the bullpen that ranks 30th in collective ERA at 5.51. You’ll find this prop priced at -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings but at +105 (48.8%) at BetMGM. Take advantage of this mispriced MLB player prop to watch tonight before it disappears.
Best MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
