Yesterday’s column cashed tickets for both RHP Dane Dunning and LHH Bryce Harper, which was more than enough to turn a profit despite losing our bet for LHH Yordan Alvarez. We even got a few extra winners on our home run betting strategy.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, April 13
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez
We lost our bet for LHH Yordan Alvarez yesterday, but we’re running it back today. He was hit by two pitches across five plate appearances and hit three fly balls. It marked his second straight hitless game. I expect him to bounce back tonight versus LHP Andrew Heaney.
Heaney is off to a rocky start this year. He owns a 7.56 xERA, which, in his defense, is probably inflated by variance. His 3.48 xERA (64th percentile) is much more solid, and it marks an improvement from the 4.55 xERA (35th percentile) he recorded last season.
Heaney has struggled against Alvarez and LHHs like him. Alvarez sports an impressive .412/.545/.647 slash line against Heaney with two extra-base hits and a home run across 17 at-bats. With 16 mph winds blowing straight out through center field, he’s in for a trickier task today.
Unlike Heaney, Alvarez is off to a great start this season. He owns a .367 xBA (99th percentile) along with a .808 xSLG (100th percentile), a slight uptick from the .300 xBA (97th percentile) and .626 xSLG (99th percentile) he recorded last year.
Alvarez has mashed 4 actual and 4.4 expected home runs this season, including a no-doubter against Heaney last week. I’m getting action on him to tally multiple bases and go yard today.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Garrett Crochet
We picked a winner from our the better protected your bankroll is from variance. I bought got the under 7.5 before the line moved, but it makes a ton of sense to fade Crochet after his unsustainably hot start to the year. His 31.3% strikeout rate (86th percentile)
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Today, the MLB betting model recommends getting some action on Crochet’s under on the strikeout market due to a major odds disparity: the under 6.5 will cost you only +120 at Fanatics and Hard Rock despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -115. We’re getting a boatload of edge relative to the market with this one because the true odds for it clock in at +102!
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts +120 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Garrett Crochet total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia
Let’s get action on RHH Adolis Garcia against RHP Ronel Blanco. Blanco is off to a crazy hot start to the year, sporting a 0.00 ERA and a 1.31 xERA (98th percentile). That’s massively improved from the 5.13 xERA he recorded last year, which suggests his hot start to the year is unsustainable.
Garcia is slashing .315/.377/.593 this year with a .310/.362/.643 slash line and four home runs against RHPs like Blanco. Garcia has mashed only 2.9 xHR this season, but his 93.2 mph average exit velocity (91st percentile) and 53.8% hard-hir rate (91st percentile) suggest more dingers are in his future.
We’re betting on this line due to the massive odds disparity between FanDuel’s +290 and Pinnacle’s +208. Every other sports book is hanging a line of +235 or worse, so we’re getting a great deal on this one. I’m also betting on Garcia to record multiple bases at odds of +110 at FanDuel.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adolis Garcia home run live odds page!
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