Yesterday’s MLB props and home run picks aged okay — we missed on our Blue Jays lefties, but we cashed an under for RHP Carlos Rodon easily. Let’s pick some more winners today and dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Thursday’s card — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our MLB player prop betting.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, April 4
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jake Burger
The 0-7 Miami Marlins are off to a terrible start, but they’ll get to face a terrible starter in RHP Lance Lynn today. Lynn was brutal last season, allowing an NBA-high 48 actual and 45.4 expected home runs, leading the next-worst pitcher by seven and 6.8, respectively. He remains a fade for us this season
Aside from home runs, how bad was Lynn in 2023? He recorded a 4.86 xERA (24th percentile) and allowed batters to record a .252 xBA (37th percentile). Worse, he ranked in the first percentile for overall pitching run value and fastball run value.
Lynn’s average fastball velocity of 92.2 mph (22nd percentile) and reliance on his four-seamer (37.1% of all pitches thrown last year) made him a target for opposing sluggers. Batters recorded a barrel rate of 10.4% (13th percentile) against him.
LHHs fared best versus Lynn last season, as they slashed .289/.360/.551 versus Lynn last season with 43 extra-base hits and 24 home runs. However, RHHs were good, too, slashing .231/.298/.421 with 30 extra-base hits and 20 home runs.
We’re backing RHH Jake Burger in this spot because he has the most power of any Marlins batter and has been more than capable against opposing RHPs. Burger slashed .247/.304/.496 versus RHPs last season with 44 extra-base hits and 23 home runs. He also mashed a whopping 33 xHR with a .270 xBA (75th percentile) and .512 xSLG (91st percentile).
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases +140 at bet365 & Home Run +475 at BetMGM
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Pablo Lopez
I’m excited about the Marlins today (I also have action on Pablo Lopez stands out as a great bet. Although Lopez is an elite pitcher, and his 29.2% strikeout rate (87th percentile) last season was unquestionably good, he takes on a Cleveland Guardians lineup that ranks third in strikeouts taken per game this year (6.71) and led the MLB last year (7.05).
If you’re wondering how the model works, it’s simple: it pulls in the odds across the market and produces the true odds of each wager (a breakeven price), which helps us identify off-market lines with my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off when you first sign up.
Today, our MLB betting model recommends fading Lopez on the strikeout market today not because of any projection-based reason but because of a market disparity: the under 6.5 strikeouts will cost you only -160 at BetMGM despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -232. We’re scoring a ton of edge relative to the market here, especially with several books already shifting to 5.5. The true odds for this bet are -177.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Pablo Lopez Under 6.5 Strikeouts -160 at BetMGM
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Parker Meadows
I’ve been hitting a bunch of home run bets thanks to our Jack Suwinski +330 ticket) and while we lost plenty more, the odds were more than generous enough for us to have turned a profit.
Unfortunately, with a relatively small MLB slate on tap today, not many home run picks stood out as of publication, and all of them were in the noon doubleheader between the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets. So if you’re reading this column in the early or late afternoon — sorry — but go bet on Jake Burger.
The model wants action on Parker Meadows because FanDuel is charging only +800 for him to go yard while Pinnacle is charging +592 — and every other public book is at +600 or shorter. Meadows recorded over 100 plate appearances last year and tallied 2.9 xHR, but five of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Citi Field.
If you’re looking for additional home run picks, today may not be the best day for them, but make sure to subscribe and access our MLB betting model to see if any others are popping in there!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Parker Meadows +800 at FanDuel
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