MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Pick Today for Sunday, May 19 (2024)

Defensively, Diaz leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 51st among MLB catchers with a 1.96 pop time and 44th in the majors in caught stealing above average (0). Though he’s caught 22% of runners this season, he isn’t a good enough defensive catcher for the Brewers to fear him behind the plate. Milwaukee ranks third in the MLB with 60 stolen bases in 45 games, with Turang leading the way. Projected for five at-bats, if Turang has a chance with a base open ahead of him, he’s likely going to be running.

Turang was uninspiring last season, batting just .218 in over 400 plate appearances a year ago. He did show off his speed with 26 stolen bases but clearly would have had more if he were getting on base at a consistent clip. With a .362 on-base percentage this year, he’s already recorded 17 stolen bases in just over 150 plate appearances. Listed at +210 on FanDuel, Turang’s odds are high enough to attack this spot.

Against a below-average pitcher and a poor defensive catcher, Turang is prime to be on base and running during Sunday’s action.

As the model shows, the -130 odds at bet365 are the best value offered on Vaughn’s total bases prop this afternoon. Getting a 5- to 10-cent discount on a bet like this may not seem like a big deal to casual bettors, but finding the best line is crucial to building the bankroll and adds up over time. The model points to Vaughn as a +EV bet, with the true odds of his under 1.5 total bases calculated at -159.

So how does our model identify this player prop as one of the best values on the board? It draws in the odds from across the sports betting market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and other factors; then generates a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet.

Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.

The Toronto Blue Jays face off with division rival Tampa Bay Rays in the series finale on Sunday afternoon, hoping to avoid a sweep. The Jays have lost each of the first two games of the series by one run, falling to 19-25 on the season and two full games behind the Boston Red Sox for last place in the AL East.

Bo Bichette will likely bat cleanup against Rays starter Aaron Civale, hoping to tee off against the veteran pitcher. Bichette is 3-for-9 against Civale in his career and has struck out against him just once. Civale has allowed nine home runs in 46.1 innings this season, tied for the sixth most home runs allowed in the league. With nearly 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, Civale has had some issues with the long ball this season.

Bichette has just two home runs this season but went deep last weekend. He has improved his hard rate of late, bumping up to 34.9%, 28th among qualifying MLB hitters.