After an 8-2 (+7.1U) night for my Discord, I’m looking to keep the momentum rolling on tonight’s MLB slate. We’ve got a bunch of pitchers worth fading (looking at you, LHP Patrick Corbin) and a number of bats in good spots. We have no time to waste — let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, August 27.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, August 27
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jurickson Profar
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The San Diego Padres are in St. Louis to play the Cardinals this evening, and it’s RHP Miles Mikolas on the bump for the home team. Although he has pitched a gem or two this season, I’m a big Mikolas skeptic.
Mikolas’ 4.37 xERA (37th percentile) isn’t bad, but a deeper look under the hood reveals how great he is for batter props. He sports an .275 xBA (11th percentile) and a 3.8% walk rate (97th), so if someone’s getting on base, they’re getting there with a hit.
Power has also been an issue for Mikolas. He sports a .449 xSLG, and, while he has allowed only 20 HRs, he has given up 21.7 xHR, good for 1.4 xHR/9. He is also coughing up an average of 1.9 total bases per inning.
We’re targeting SH Jurickson Profar in this spot largely due to the splits. Profar is slashing a steady .276/.375/.451 versus RHPs with 13 home runs. Mikolas is allowing LHBs to slash a steady .277/.307/.488 with nine home runs.
That said, Profar’s overall batting profile is impressive, perhaps moreso. He has a .287 xBA (92nd percentile) and .456 xSLG (73rd). It certainly helps that he’ll benefit from a nice 6 mph wind blowing straight out this evening! I’m trusting Profar for multiple bases (+105 at FanDuel) and a home run.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Jurickson Profar +520 at Jurickson Profar home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Dylan Cease
We’re sticking on tonight’s Cardinals-Padres contest for our next MLB player prop pick. It’s RHP Dylan Cease on the mound for the Friars this evening, and while he boasts an elite 31.2% strikeout rate (92nd percentile), I’m not buying the hype in this spot.
For one, the Cardinals have gotten good at avoiding strikeouts. Since July 31, they rank sixth in strikeout rate versus RHPs (20.1%). That’s a big improvement from their 18th-place ranking (23%) before then, and it’s a credit to how they’ve adapted their lineup.
For another, Cease has not been effective at striking out these Cardinals. Across 20 at-bats versus players on St. Louis’ roster, Cease has just three strikeouts for a 15% rate. Sure, he hasn’t faced leadoff batter Masyn Winn or two-hole batter Alec Burleson yet, but those two own strikeout rates ranked in the 80th and 94th percentiles, respectively.
Lastly, we’re in St. Louis. The park doesn’t always matter for strikeout props, but in this case, it absolutely does. Busch Stadium ranks 27th in park factors for strikeouts over the last three seasons. It ranks 28th this year alone. With Cease’s prop at a bloated 6.5 — a number he has cleared in only one of his last five starts — play the under.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts -160 at Dylan Cease total bases live odds page!
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