The UFC roars on with a solid Saturday card for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2. It’s no UFC 300, but UFC 300 wouldn’t be special if it was every weekend, would it? Let’s get into our Valter Walker-Lukasz Brzeski pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Valter Walker-Lukasz Brzeski Pick, Odds and Preview
Walker-Brzeski Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Walker: -250 | Brzeski: +180
Walker -3.5: -170 | Brzeski +3.5: +130
Over 1.5: -190 | Under 1.5: +145
Walker-Brzeski Pick & Preview
Valter Walker (11-0) makes his UFC debut against Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) who comes in on a three-fight losing streak. With no data on Walker, I recommend not betting on this one. For those dead-set on doing so, I would lean towards Brzeski, given his UFC experience — and the fact he is an underdog.
Brzeski is being somewhat unfairly underrated coming into this one. While he is 0-3 in his UFC career since his fight on the Contender Series, he had a rough schedule. Combined, Brzeski’s opponents are 14-2 in their UFC careers. Even still, Brzeski had a great performance in his debut against Martin Buday, though he lost a brutal split decision that had many fans screaming about robbery.
Brzeski’s traditional stats are solid. He lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute at a 48% hit rate, which is a blazing pace for any heavyweight. Further, he only absorbs 3.46 strikes, which is a stunning difference in the amount of damage he takes compared to the damage he doles out.
Walker looks to make the jump from Titan FC straight to the UFC. It’s hard to determine how much to trust his impressive performances and how they will translate as he switches promotions.
Interestingly, Belal Muhammad, a strong contender despite the criticisms of his style, made the jump from Titan FC to the UFC and lost his debut. While this isn’t dispositive as to whether Walker will win, it’s at least some evidence the jump is tough to make, even for great fighters.
The unpredictability of the heavyweight division and lack of data make this fight almost impossible to forecast. I would stay away from this one, but for those who need to bet on every fight on the main card, riding with the underdog makes the most sense.
Best UFC Walker-Brzeski Bet & Pick: Lukasz Brzeski +180 at DraftKings
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