Another day, another NBA slate to break down, and you already know I’m diving into the best betting angles to keep the bankroll moving in the right direction. Yesterday was a rollercoaster; that’s the grind, though, and with +EV NBA bets.
Best NBA Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
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Lakers (-6.5) at Wizards (223.5)
LAL — LeBron James, Dorian Finney-Smith, Gabe Vincent are Questionable, Anthony Davis, Christian Wood are Out.
WAS — Alexandre Sarr Questionable, Malcolm Brogdon Out
Yes, Anthony Davis is out for at least a week or two, which is terrible timing for the Lakers. But that shores up the chances of LeBron and Finney-Smith playing, especially coming off that Philadelphia debacle on Tuesday.
The Lakers also don’t play again until Saturday in New York before returning home for a game Tuesday; I simply appear to be more confident in him playing than the market reflects.
Best NBA Bet: Lakers -6.5 (LIKE)
Hawks (+10.5) at Cavaliers (237.5)
ATL — Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jalen Johnson, Cody Zeller are Out
CLE — Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill are Questionable. Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro Doubtful. Dean Wade is Out
CleaningTheGlass shows us just how big of a mismatch this Cavaliers offensive rating is versus the Atlanta defensive efficiency. The Cavs score 123.1 points per 100 possessions, and this game surely projects for more possessions than normal for them facing a Hawks team averaging 104.3 of them per game (second most in NBA).
Still, while my simulations have this as a bet, I can’t help but feel someone on the Cavs side is going to randomly rest.
Best NBA Bet: Over 237.5 (LEAN)
Timberwolves (-7) at Jazz (224.5)
MIN — Naz Reid, Mike Conley are Questionable, Donte DiVincenzo is Out
UTA — John Collins, Walker Kessler, Johnny Juzang are Questionable, Cody Williams is Out
The backcourt minutes sure have sorted themselves out. Now don’t get me wrong; they’re still terrible as Isaiah Collier’s awful and Keyonte George regressed defensively in year 2. But hey, at least both are racking up dimes and stuff! Collier has a 31.5% assist rate on the year, 27.5% for George. It seems as though they’ve been slightly under projected by the market of late; we’ll see if that continues in a tough spot against Minnesota.
Best NBA Bet: Timberwolves -7 (LEAN)
Rockets (+5) at Grizzlies (238)
HOU — Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams are Questionable, Jabari Smith Jr. is Out
MEM — Marcus Smart, Vince Williams Jr. are Out
Overall, the Rockets also have the fourth-best adjusted defensive rating in the NBA on DunksAndThrees. And simulating this game 10,000 times, I have Memphis falling short of 121 points 55.6% of the time (weighting Sengun for 50% of his normal court time due to the questionable tag). That translates to a breakeven price of -125, giving us a sizable edge.
Best NBA Bet: Grizzlies Under 120.5 (LIKE)
Magic (-5) at Trail Blazers (212.5)
ORL — Jalen Suggs is Questionable
POR — Jerami Grant is Questionable
If Jalen Suggs plays, the starting lineup I expect them to roll out is Suggs, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. And the results in 82 minutes this season have not been stellar so far: 100.6 Offensive Rating, 109.6 Defensive Rating, 48% effective field goal percentage.
Now is where we run into small sample size issues: Who were they playing in those six games? Were these all games early on in the season before each player had their absurd string of injuries? Goga Bitadze was starting over Carter to start off the season; how did this lineup compare to that one? There are lots of cool ways to dig into the game deeper if you’re interested and a basketball/sport/data nerd like me.
Best NBA Bet: Paolo Banchero Over 23.5 Points (LEAN)
