Let’s go — we wrapped up the play-in by going 5-2 on NBA player props. We split last night’s card, losing a Nikola Vucevic prop on his final field goal attempt (pain) but cashing a Jaime Jaquez Jr. prop in the first half. How will we fare in the playoffs? With four games in store today, I’ve identified some spots worth getting action on with the help of NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Joel Embiid & More
Joel Embiid Player Prop
If you watched the Philadelphia 76ers against the Miami Heat on Wednesday, you’d know that superstar center Joel Embiid did not look like himself. He is still working back from a lengthy absence, and, despite playing 38 minutes in a pivotal near-elimination game, he scored only 23 points while dishing out five assists.
Embiid goes from the notoriously stingy Heat defense to the similarly stingy New York Knicks defense. New York ranked third in points allowed per game to centers (20.4) and second in assists (3.5). New York boasts a strong mix of traditional and less traditional bigs to throw Embiid’s way, including Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa.
In a tough road contest for which his 76ers are 3.5-point underdogs, Embiid may see less playing time than we saw him get on Wednesday. The minutes he does get will come against a defense that knows what he can do and has the tools to respond in kind. Embiid tallied only 33 points and assists versus a post-OG Anunoby-trade Knicks team earlier this season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Joel Embiid points and assists live odds page!
LeBron James Player Prop
Let’s go to the late-slate matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets for this pick. The Nuggets, who swept the Lakers last season, are seven-point home favorites for this year’s first game. I’m fading LeBron James in the Mile High City by betting on him to stay under 41.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA). He averaged 41.3 in the regular season this year (and 47.3 in the playoff series between these teams last year), but road games in Denver can be tricky, and we’re getting this bet at an off-market number:
As you can see, we’re beating the market by a considerable amount by betting this at positive expected value (+EV) like this one.
We know this is a +EV bet because of how the model works. It estimates a breakeven price, called true odds, by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for book sharpness, hold and more; and generating a fair price. The true odds of this wager are -110.
When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, it’s a +EV bet! Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.
For more picks, sign up for guide to using +EV tools!
NBA Player Prop Pick: LeBron James PRA live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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