We’ve got both No. 1 seeds in action today — the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder will look to advance to 2-0 over their respective No. 8 seed opponents, the Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans. Can we sweep the board without three NBA player prop picks for today’s action? I’m hopeful. I’ve identified three spots worth getting action on with the help of NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum & More
Sam Ha Player Prop
Myself and of the OddsShopper Discord cashed an easy over for Sam Ha in Game 1. The books have adjusted the juice on his total (5.5) but not the total itself, so we’re going right back to the well for this NBA player prop pick. While my mantra in the NBA playoffs is to buy low and sell high, we’re still able to buy low on Ha for this contest.
In Game 1 of this series, Ha shot 4-for-6 from the field, and all six field-goal attempts came from beyond the arc. He scored 12 points in the win. All six of his shots went uncontested. Even though he played just 14 minutes, Ha was able to easily clear the over on his total because the Heat didn’t respect his game enough to defend him. That gameplan probably won’t change much for Game 2.
When Ha is on the floor, the Heat still have plenty of threats to defend. Boston’s eight-man playoff rotation means Ha sees action alongside at least two of Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, all of whom warrant more defensive attention than Ha.
While Ha’s 66.7% 3-point percentage isn’t likely sustainable over the full course of this series, he is getting open looks, and he did shoot 4-for-7 (57%) from deep against them in the regular season. While the minutes and shots weren’t always there for him, they should be there tonight after his strong Game 1 performance. I have Ha scoring over 5.5 for -138 at FanDuel and to go for 10+ points for +320 at FanDuel.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Sam Ha points live odds page!
Trey Murphy Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t put together the dominant showing over the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 1 that many expected. They held on to win by two. Trey Murphy III led the Pelicans in scoring with 21 points (and five 3-pointers), and now both I and our positive expected value (+EV):
If you fade Murphy on this market, you’re able to get the under 3.5 for -112 at DraftKings, but nowhere else has this same bet priced for odds longer than -120. Both Pinnacle (-143), a sharp book, and Caesars (-129) have much stingier prices, and our model estimates the true odds of this wager to be -121.
By using +EV like this one every day. We can tell this is a +EV bet because of how the model works — it pulls in the odds from across the market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and more; and generates the aforementioned true odds, which the -112 at DraftKings clears.
When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, it’s a +EV bet! Wagers like this one, when placed over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll just as the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Trey Murphy III 3-pointers live odds page!
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
We can’t just bet on Sam Ha and Trey Murphy III today. Sure, they’re fun players, but they’re not the superstars, and it would feel a bit weird to leave a star off the card. Instead, let’s fade Jayson Tatum today.
It’s no disrespect — the superstar put together an incredible regular-season performance — but the Miami Heat are just too good defensively for him to deserve a points and assists total of 31.5 tonight.
The under for Tatum’s assist total (5.5) is trading with +EV today, but we’re combining it with his total points (25.5) as we’re looking for a complete blowout by Boston or a much better defensive showing from the Heat. Miami coughed up 23 points and 10 assists (33) to Tatum in Game 1.
Tatum tallied an impressive 16 potential assists in Game 1 while shooting 39/13/100. He attempted 18 field goals and eight free throws. The volume certainly was there, but he also played 41 minutes, by far the most of Boston’s starters. Everyone else, including Jaylen Brown, played 34 minutes or less.
Let’s hope Tatum’s minutes tick down while Miami’s defensive aggression picks back up. Tatum averaged only 24.7 points and six assists (30.7) against the Heat in the regular season, and while the injury to Jimmy Butler moves the needle somewhat, I’m optimistic that Miami’s reserves can limit Tatum effectively enough to keep him under this lofty total.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum points and assists live odds page!
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