The coldest of cold streaks we were on with our NBA same-game parlays is long in the rearview mirror — we’ve won two straight at +292, and now we get to add a third tonight. Suddenly, we are the Celtics of the SGP market, and everyone else is the Mavericks down 0-3. As always, these same-game parlays are all about building long-term profitability, not just results here and now. Now let’s create a Parlay Builder.
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Celtics-Mavericks Parlay: BetMGM SGP With Luka Doncic
Leg #1: Sam Ha Under 5.5 Points
Let’s start with a banner name as we build what may be our final NBA same-game parlay.
This is a tricky one with Ha, not just because he is scoring about half as many points per game in the playoffs as he did in the regular season, but also because this seems like a game where reserves from both teams get a lot of time. We’ve seen it before — a team with its back against the wall gets down in an elimination game and waves the white flag early in the fourth. In that scenario, Ha will be one of the first guys up off the Celtics bench.
But OddsShopper isn’t expecting a blowout right now, with the moneyline projecting as a 50% coin flip for each side and the Mavericks having a 52% chance of covering +1.5. So we are not expecting Dallas to lay down at any point.
Ha saw at least 10 minutes in each of the last six games, yet he only cleared 5.5 points in two of those. All told, he has six overs in 17 playoff games despite averaging 14.5 minutes per. In other words, if we’re not expecting blowout run, the safe play is the under on 5.5.
OddsShopper’s BetMGM are below the -129 True Odds, making this leg 3.3% +EV. It is currently the No. 1 Celtics-Mavericks player prop on the board for any book.
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Leg #2: Luka Doncic Under 8.5 Assists
OK, now to the real fun: Blaming Doncic for his teammates’ shortcomings.
In all seriousness, Doncic has been a real letdown both in of performance and attitude, so he is certainly not blameless in of both Dallas’ situation and his assist numbers. That said, come on — no one on the Mavericks is making anything.
Aside from Doncic, Dallas’ non-bigs are shooting a collective 38.9% from the field and a miserable 27.7% from 3 — which basically takes away half of Doncic’s assist potential. He still has the lobs to Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, who are both over 70% from the field, but the drive-and-kick is out the window until some Mavs make something.
As a result, Doncic has assist totals of six, 11 and one in this series, whereas through the first three rounds he was averaging 8.8 a game.
Now, maybe this is his statement game — bring on the gentleman’s sweep, if you will. Maybe Doncic goes for 50, 12 and 10 and defies all the trends. No one can put that past him. But the trends and the data suggest otherwise.
The under on 8.5 assists has a 51% win rate in OddsShopper’s BetMGM, and the 28% win rate is very workable for this odds range of +266.
It’s important to if you are new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
Celtics-Mavericks Parlay Today: +266 at BetMGM
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