Is LeBron James Playing Tonight? Time to Fade D’Angelo Russell on the Player Prop Markets (March 26)

Russell exploded for 44 points versus the Bucks when LeBron was sidelined earlier this month, so the public books are eager to make a quick buck off over bettors by inflating his total.

The Lakers were at home for Russell’s 44-point explosion, but they’re on the road tonight. Russell’s points per game average dips from 19.2 at home to 16.6 on the road this year. That’s despite him playing seven road games without LeBron.

We can tell the under is a sharp bet because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under for the stingy price of -125 (55.6%). That means we’re scoring a free 4.4% of implied probability relative to that book.

Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll (ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.

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