With the NBA Playoffs underway, the margins are tighter, but so are the odds — and that means opportunity. We’ve analyzed today’s playoff matchups, looking across all major sportsbooks to uncover the best first basket scorer today based on expected value (EV). These are the two sharpest bets for April 20, where a player’s odds undervalue how often they actually score first.
NBA First Basket Scorer Tonight: Stats & Predictions
Portfolio Betting page to get started!
Magic vs. Cavaliers
Evan Mobley might be the most underrated NBA first basket scorer today. FanDuel lists him at +480 to score the game’s first basket, implying about a 17% chance. But here’s the truth: Mobley scored the first basket 16 times this season — second-most in the entire league. That’s nearly 20% of Cavaliers games.
This isn’t just a random trend. Cleveland often wins the opening tip thanks to Jarrett Allen, who has a 75% jump-ball win rate. And when the Cavs get the ball first, they frequently look inside to Mobley for a post-up or lob. He’s taken Cleveland’s first shot in a large chunk of games and consistently finishes early chances at the rim.
Despite that, sportsbooks continue to price him below his true probability.
NBA First Basket Scorer Today: Evan Mobley (+480, FanDuel)
Warriors vs. Rockets
If Mobley is undervalued, Alperen Sengun might be the most mispriced player in the first basket market tonight. Sengun led the NBA with 18 first baskets this season, meaning he cashed this prop in roughly 22% of Rockets games. That’s a staggering number — yet his odds still hover at +490.
Sengun’s dominance in this market is backed by more than scoring ability. He often wins the opening tip, giving Houston first possession. The Rockets frequently run their first play through him, taking advantage of his footwork and strength around the rim. In tonight’s game against the Warriors, he has a clear size advantage and should see a clean look if Houston starts with the ball.
Golden State doesn’t have a dominant jump-ball big (Draymond Green has been taking them), and Sengun’s offensive role hasn’t changed. He continues to be the focal point on first possessions, which is exactly what you want in a first basket prediction.
NBA First Basket Scorer Today: Alperen Sengun (+490, FanDuel)
