We have a ton of action Wednesday night in the NBA. An 11-game slate only means more opportunity to beat the market with Portfolio EV and another chance to turn a profit. Along with the typical injury news that dominates any night, we have some solid matchups with Houston in Denver, Orlando in Milwaukee, and the Heat and Lakers in Los Angeles. Keep an eye as both injury news and the market prices change throughout the day. Here are your top NBA player prop picks for Wednesday night in the NBA.
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, Jan. 15
Last season, we went +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Contrary to what you see on social media, not every single day is going to be a smash. Some days will be better than others, and a few will even outright stink. Each day we lay out some key strategies as to why Portfolio EV routinely outperforms other betting tools, and one of those pillars is bankroll management. I’m on X running my own daily posts, and managing my bankroll with each parlay has kept me above water this year. DM me for more on Portfolio EV.
It works both ways. Yesterday’s plays went 2-1, yet we don’t change our approach. Just because we had a profitable night doesn’t mean we up the amount of each bet. By staying the course, you will see far less dip in your bankroll whenever those stinky nights happen.
Our top play is Keon Johnson under 3.5 assists with +114 odds on DraftKings. It’s our top play because we are getting a better return (+114) than the true odds of +103. We simply beat the market price. Think of it like any commodity — if you are getting the best price, it’s going to net a profit, especially with a plus-money return.
Our second play is Dejounte Murray under 7.5 assists. This time it’s +105 at DraftKings with true odds of -103. We should be laying -103 for this bet, but the detailed algorithm identified the +105 as simply a better bet. Look at the second graphic and you can see the difference of price for the same bet.
Sure, you can get a “better” deal at both Fliff and Hard Rock than the true odds — but we know there’s an even better price. But what’s even worse is how much other books will charge for the same exact ticket. You still need Murray to stay under 7.5 dimes at FanDuel, yet we are paying an absurdly high price.
The best part about betting the proper odds is knowing we are entering a profitable market. You will see the EV edge — a combination of beating the true odds, other books in the market and historical return on investment. The last one is key as we know with assists on Portfolio EV every single +EV assist play is returning a 6.5% ROI.
There isn’t a sharp bettor on the planet who would turn down knowing ahead of time what the ROI is on any market. Why would you or I be any different? Take advantage of knowing what bets are returning a profit, and stay away from those that do not.
The good news is you don’t have to track that stuff. We do over at the EV results tab. You can continue to fine tune and adjust your portfolio as the data routinely updates. It’s how we stay ahead of the market and build bankrolls!
