Much like the rest of the sporting world, the NBA took a back seat to NFL Championship Sunday. We return in full force with a 12-game slate, which means a ton of player props across three time zones. This is exactly the type of night that highlights the importance of Portfolio EV, as nobody has the time to sift through hundreds of player props, especially with so much injury news. Don’t worry — I did the homework for you. Here are the top NBA player props for Monday night.
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NBA Player Prop Picks Today: Monday, Jan. 27
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today —
Our top play at the time is Trey Murphy III under 5.5 rebounds at Caesars. The odds of this ticket are -113 and that’s the best return we can get in the market. This is your starting point for every single bet no matter where you find it. If the odds do not beat the market value, then you’re off to a bad start, one that yields negative returns in the long run. Instead, thanks to our tools, we see that the -113 odds on Caesars actually beat the -124 true odds.
We didn’t need to spend an hour finding one bet, nor do we need heavy math to ensure the proper odds. This was the top bet that popped up on my portfolio this morning as I began to write this column. I’m not alone; we see people popping up all the time on social media crediting Portfolio EV for big wins.
It’s not just getting the best odds; we also need to make sure the market itself is profitable. There’s something called historical return on investment (HROI) that’s telling us how profitable +EV bets from our tools are in each market.
We smash the true odds with a difference of -113 versus -124, and we are betting into a market yielding a 9.1% ROI this year. You can look at the specific matchup against the Raptors, how many rebounds they give up to Murphy’s position, or even what Murphy has done over his past 20 games — none of it matters unless the price is right.
It is the same logic with Khris Middleton. The top play is under 4.5 assists at +104 on Caesars. That number is also better than the true odds of -103 and every other available book. The HROI is 10%, and we have a massive edge if this game gets out of hand in Utah.
The analysis always comes last, if at all. The Jazz aren’t interested in winning games, and Milwaukee is hot despite coming off a loss against the Clippers. Even a quick look at recent performance shows Middleton finished below this number in five of nine games in January.
Again, none of that matters if we take the worst of it. Betting the proper odds is essential to long-term profit. Portfolio EV, so follow along and hit me up with any questions — my DMs are always open!
