The Portfolio EV on Friday, Dec. 27.
NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Lucky for us today, there are quite a few picks that are individually +EV, so we can get some strong value with just a three-pick entry. For the record, you could add a couple more +EV plays here to get to a 20x return and 8% positive expected value, but to keep things simple and our expected win rate over 5%, we’ll stick with a three-pick entry and a 6x payout.
Keon Johnson Less Than 11.5 Points
Brooklyn being down a couple ball handlers could in theory work well for Johnson to up his scoring. That hasn’t really been the case, though. Johnson has only scored 12-plus in two of the last five with Cam Thomas out, some of which were against miserable opponents like the Jazz.
Stokastic’s NBA Advanced Stat Projections give him 11.1 tonight in 28.8 minutes. That playing time is right in line with his recent run, and 10 minutes above his season average, so minutes are not the defining factor here. The truth is the Nets offense runs through Cameron Johnson these days, and he and Noah Clowney are taking on the scoring load.
We place Johnson at a 57% chance of falling short of 11.5 points tonight.
Pascal Siakam Less Than 7.5 Rebounds
Siakam is on a recent run of high-rebounding games, with 10-plus in three of the last five. That said, those for three of his four double-digit games in the last month, and for the season he is 12-for-31 on eight rebounds or more (38.7%).
Now he gets a pace down against an elite, methodical Celtics team that is also the No. 4 defensive rebounding team in the league. Stokastic projections Siakam at 7.1 boards, so we’re giving him a 56% of pulling seven or fewer.
Jamal Murray Less than 6.5 Assists
Let’s keep the fades going. Anyone intimately familiar with the Nuggets this year knows that Nikola Jokic is about three ill-timed Murray chucks away from punting him to Sombor, which seemed to have an effect on the latter last game. He only took 10 shots and dished six assists — and that still would place him below 6.5 tonight.
Murray only has one game of seven assists or more in the last six, and Stokastic’s NBA stat projections have him at 6.4 — just shy of the 6.5 mark. That leads to a 56% chance of Murray missing out on seven assists; we are going to take that side.
This puts the total NBA expert picks!
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