Monday night’s NBA slate features 10 games, providing plenty of opportunities to find prop bets. Let’s take a look at a pair of props for this matchup with my two favorite NBA Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions.
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Chris Paul H/L Than 6.5 Assists
Chris Paul enters this matchup averaging eight assists per game as a member of the San Antonio Spurs.
Paul’s assist rate sits at 36.4%, and he now faces the Washington Wizards—a team allowing the third-most assists per game in the NBA.
We’re getting solid value on 3’s assist prop due to the Spurs’ roster changes. Near the trade deadline, San Antonio acquired De’Aaron Fox from Sacramento. Naturally, the expectation was that Fox’s arrival would reduce Paul’s usage, and through three games, that has been the case. Paul’s assist rate has dropped to 28%, and his usage rate has dipped from 13.7% to 11%.
However, there’s no need for concern. It’s a small sample size, and for this prop, we’re focused on Paul facilitating, not scoring. Fox’s presence actually opens up the offense, giving Paul another reliable scorer to set up. Despite the roster shift, Paul has cleared 6.5 assists in two of three games with Fox.
Stokastic’s industry-leading NBA DFS projections have Paul tallying eight assists tonight, comfortably suring his prop line of 6.5.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Chris Paul Higher Than 6.5 Assists
Jimmy Butler H/L Than 31.5 Points, Rebounds + Assists
In his Golden State Warriors debut, Jimmy Butler scored 25 points, grabbed two rebounds, and dished out four assists in 29 minutes against his former team, the Chicago Bulls. It was an impressive performance for the 35-year-old.
However, Butler faces a much tougher challenge tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. Despite the matchup, sportsbooks haven’t adjusted his points, rebounds, and assists prop accordingly. He shot an astonishing 58% against a weak Bulls defense; that is unlikely to repeat against Milwaukee.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections have Butler at 18 points, five rebounds, and four assists—totaling 27 PRA, well below the prop line of 31.5.
Let’s take advantage of this discrepancy and bet on Butler staying under the mark tonight.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jimmy Butler Lower Than 31.5 Points, Rebounds + Assists
