After a hiatus since Sunday night, the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament will resume on Thursday. Let’s dive straight into our top college basketball picks today as our experts break down their best college basketball bets for Thursday, March 28, including a Clemson-Arizona prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our other sportsbook promotions for March Madness.
College Basketball Picks Today: Expert Bets for Thursday, March 28
College Basketball Expert Pick #1: Clemson-Arizona Prediction
After losing their opening game in the ACC Tournament to Boston College, Clemson has now knocked off New Mexico and Baylor on their way to the Sweet 16.
Similarly, Arizona fell to Oregon in the second round of the Pac-12 Tournament and has now rattled off two straight wins over Long Beach State and Dayton.
An efficiency darling, Arizona ranks top-10 in most key metrics, including adjusted offense, defense and rebounding. Despite this, the Wildcats have still found ways to lose four games in quad two and another in quad three to an egregiously bad Oregon State team.
As a team, they play well inside and out. The seven-foot Oumar Ballo protects the rim and grabs rebounds, while Caleb Love generates most of the offense.
With that said, this team still comes with weaknesses. Ballo struggles on the offense end and Love scores in streaks, shooting just 34% from three.
Making matters worse, Arizona has failed to settle on a point guard between Kylan Boswell and Jaden Bradley. Clemson defends the interior at a top-50 clip but can sometimes struggle on the perimeter. However, their best defender, Jack Clark, missed 11 games, depressing these numbers
As for Clemson, this team should have enough offensive firepower to hang with Clemson. They stand 34th in effective height, with PJ Hall, Ian Schieffelen, RJ Godfrey Chauncey Wiggins and Clark all standing at least 6-foor-7. They also have solid shooting metrics, led by veteran Joe Girard III shooting 41.5% from three. Arizona doesn’t have many defensive weaknesses, but they rank 116th defending the three.
College Basketball Pick: Clemson +7.5 (-112) at DraftKings
College Basketball Expert Pick #2: Duke-Houston Prediction
OddsShopper’s college basketball betting tools recommend that you get some action on this Duke-Houston first-half total before sharp bettors gobble up all the value.
SuperBook is offering the first-half under 62 for only -110 despite the rest of the public books taking action on this bet for -129 or steeper — and Pinnacle, a sharp book, listing it at -123.
Using a market-based betting approach can feel weird, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the NBA season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
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College Basketball Pick: Duke-Houston First Half Under 62 -110 at SuperBook
College Basketball Expert Pick #3: Illinois-Iowa State Prediction
It’s a strength-on-strength matchup with the top-ranked Illinois offense facing an elite Iowa State defense.
It’s always tricky to know how that plays out, but given the Illini’s strength on the glass, their ability to take care of the ball and the fact they have the best player on the floor in Terrence Shannon, I like their chances.
Iowa State isn’t a good shooting team, and if Illinois can limit their turnovers, I think they will succeed both in transition and in the half-court. I respect both teams, and it should be back and forth, but give me the 1.5 with Illinois in this spot.
College Basketball Pick: Illinois +1.5 -110 at DraftKings
— Ben Rasa
