The Jacksonville Jaguars are back from London, and they’ll get to host the Indianapolis Colts this weekend. The Jaguars seemed to have figured some stuff out when across the pond as they went 2-0. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Colts-Jaguars betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 6 bet!
Colts-Jaguars Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 6
Colts-Jaguars Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
Colts: +170 | Jaguars: -200
Colts +4: -110 | Jaguars -4: -110
Over 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
Colts-Jaguars Pick & Prediction
After the Indianapolis Colts drafted Anthony Richardson, I was pretty excited about the prospect of watching Gardner Minshew II and Jonathan Taylor work together for the early part of this season. But then Taylor held out and Richardson won the starting job, so I didn’t get to see what I had hoped for. That all changed last week, as Taylor finally ended his holdout, and Richardson went down with an injury against the Titans. The Colts will now visit the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are just getting back from a two-week stay in London, and I expect plenty of scoring in this one.
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With or without Richardson, the Colts have an exciting offense. Minshew helps get the most out of wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs’ route-running savvy, and, while he lacks Richardson’s mobility, he more than makes up for it in accuracy and veteran decision-making. Minshew is 30-for-37 (81%) as a er through two relief appearances this year. He has yet to commit a turnover or take a sack. He has led 10 drives for the Colts this season. Three of those ended in touchdowns, three ended in field goals, three ended in punts and one ended with a turnover-on-downs in the red zone.
The Colts draw the Jaguars on Sunday, and, after an inefficient start to the season, Jacksonville finally found its footing in London. In Weeks 4 and 5, Jacksonville’s offense ranked eighth in expected points added (EPA) per play, 20th in EPA per rush and seventh in EPA per dropback. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranked fifth in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/OE composite score through that span as well. That’s far more in line with what we saw out of the Jaguars and Lawrence last season. Although wide receiver Zay Jones is day-to-day with a knee injury, Lawrence will still have Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne at his disposal, which could prove lethal.
The Colts and Jaguars combined to score a whopping 52 points in Week 1, but the total for their Week 6 rematch sits at only 45.5. Although their defenses will have plenty of film to assess, that won’t help the Jaguars much, as Richardson is sidelined. Jacksonville ranks a solid fourth in EPA allowed per rush attempt but is only 14th in EPA allowed per dropback, which could prove problematic against a more traditional pocket er like Minshew. Indianapolis’ defense ranks 12th in EPA allowed per rush but only 18th in EPA allowed per dropback. The last two meetings between these teams produced more than 47 points, and I expect that streak to continue this Sunday.
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The total has actually ticked down following the early week column. It now sits at 44 or 44.5 across the major public books. Pregame reports that despite drawing 63% of the tickets, the over has drawn only 31% of the cash. Still, I’m undeterred by sharp action bidding this one down. The fact that Anthony Richardson has since been officially ruled out doesn’t concern me. Zay Jones getting ruled out doesn’t concern me, either. Still, I’m fine as long as we’re below the key number of 47. These offenses are both solidly efficient and the defenses have enough flaws to exploit.
Colts-Jaguars NFL Week 6 Pick: Over 44.5 -110 at Bet365
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