We have one final NFL Wild Card game tonight, and for my betting angle today, that’s where I’m headed. Before we go over my free NFL pick for tonight’s Vikings-Rams Wild Card matchup, be sure to check out OddsShopper for more FREE +EV NFL bets!
Free Wild Card Monday NFL Expert Pick Today: Vikings-Rams
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Free NFL Expert Pick: Under 48.5
First off, these are two evenly matched teams. The spread reflects that, and while there’s been some movement due to external factors, none of it materially impacts my analysis. When I broke this game down, I focused on pace, turnovers and the overall game environment.
Neither team plays fast. Both are pretty methodical, with Minnesota leaning even more toward deliberate drives. Time of possession and seconds per play are both normal for these squads, which should keep the clock ticking.
Minnesota also thrives on forcing takeaways — it leads the league in this area — but the Rams are disciplined with the ball. Turnovers are a killer for unders, leading to short fields and quick scores. If we can avoid those chaos plays, this game should trend under.
On top of that, the Vikings offense isn’t particularly explosive. It is average in yards per play, and rush. The Rams defense has vulnerabilities, especially against the run, but Minnesota’s ground game has been underwhelming. That said, if the Vikings find success running, that works in our favor by churning clock.
The Rams don’t commit a lot of penalties, another plus for the under. Both teams will likely need to grind out drives, and red zone efficiency will be key. Field goals instead of touchdowns could make all the difference in staying under the number.
This game has all the makings of a tight, defense-leaning battle. Limit the explosive plays, avoid short fields and let the clock do the heavy lifting. Give me under 48.5 tonight.
Best Vikings-Rams Bet: Under 48.5 (-115, FanDuel)
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