We targeted a couple of high-end matchups last week and went 1-for-2 in the process with our anytime goal picks; now we’re going to go after a spot that’s, shall we say, not marquee. Mismatches can be strong sources of value with goal bets since, you know, the good team is likely to score a lot on the bad team. But then there are longer odds to be had in targeting said bad team, of course. That is where we are headed today — let’s get into our NHL anytime goal scorer bet for Sunday, Feb. 25.
Hurricanes-Sabres Anytime Goal Scorer
Hurricanes-Sabres Goal Scorer Odds
| Player | BetRivers Odds | BetMGM Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | +150 | +175 |
| Tage Thompson | +195 | +175 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | +180 | +210 |
| Martin Necas | +215 | +220 |
| Seth Jarvis | +225 | +230 |
| Alex Tuch | +205 | +240 |
| Jeff Skinner | +205 | +250 |
| J.J. Peterka | +290 | +280 |
With the last couple of anytime goal scorer picks, the goal was to find a targetable game and then find the best combination of odds and chances of hitting. That strategy got us a win and a loss.
Today, however, it is all about the individual player — not necessarily the game in which he is playing.
At this time, OddsShopper is giving 20 players a greater-than-30% chance of scoring a goal today. Only two of those 20 have odds at any book longer than +180, and just one is playing in a game in the later NHL window.
If you want to get the bet in now, the best odds of any player with a top-20 chance at a goal is Nico Hischier at +200 on BetMGM. But his game starts at 1 p.m. ET — and you might have some Sunday morning plans. To give you some wiggle room, we’re targeting Tage Thompson instead.
OddsShopper’s model gives Thompson a 31% chance of scoring a goal today, which ranks 17th on the whole seven-game slate — and first in this Hurricanes-Sabres game. On paper this looks like a mismatch in favor of Carolina; Buffalo is near the bottom of the league in goals scored and the Hurricanes close to the top in goals allowed. They are also the No. 1 Corsi and Fenwick defense in the NHL, and the Sabres are near the middle of the league in Corsi-for and Fenwick-for.
Thompson has also had a down year relative to last, partially due to missing some time. But there is one thing especially weighing him down this year: His shot accuracy. Thompson is a career 12.2% shooter and was over 15% in each of his last two seasons. This year he is down below 10%.
Given that Thompson leads the team in individual Fenwick per 60 — meaning he is best on the team at getting shots through unblocked — and is second in shots per 60, any semblance of regression on his shot percentage is going to lead to scoring outbursts.
Is counting on him to do so against one of the best defensive teams in the NHL foolhardy? To some, perhaps. However, the OddsShopper data is liking Thompson’s chances, and he has a 31% chance at a goal at odds that are usually reserved for players well into the 20s.
Also, this shows how important line shopping is, as Thompson to score is down at +160 at some books and +175 at BetMGM. BetRivers is giving us the value and making this play worthwhile at +195. So make sure you’re g up for OddsShopper and getting the most value out of your bets.
Best Hurricanes-Sabres NHL Anytime Goal Scorer Bet: Tage Thompson (+195 at BetRivers)
OddsShopper’s NHL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NHL predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
This right here is the OddsShopper difference.
