The fourth and final major of the PGA Tour season is finally here with the British Open Championship set to tee off. As is the case every year, we know that wind, weather and historic courses are all potentially on the menu this week. The tour heads to Royal Troon, which last time hosted the epic Henrik Stenson–Phil Mickelson duel at the 2016 Open. From a betting standpoint, this, of course, brings all the world’s best players from the PGA Tour and LIV, so there are a ton of potential wagers. Let’s dive into the PGA best bets for the 2024 British Open Championship.
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British Open Championship Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
British Open Championship Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1100 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | +2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +2800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 |
| Shane Lowry | +4000 |
Royal Troon is a par 71 that, like most links courses, isn’t going to demand crazy distance to compete. They feature a number of different types of holes, including the iconic Postage Stamp par 3 that sometimes plays under 100 yards. Without knowing the conditions players will face, it makes sense to target solid short games, as that seems to translate to all Open venues.
Like any week, a hot putter is going to be the key, but good luck predicting who will have that on a given week. I will focus more on second shot and iron distances rather than a player’s abilities off the tee. If the conditions look calm, I will bump up iron specialists, and if crazy wind is forecasted, I will lean even more heavily into strokes gained around the green.
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British Open Championship Outright Pick #1: Tyrrell Hatton
If I were going to take a guy at the very top this week it would be Rory McIlroy, but I wasn’t in love with the +750 number at most books. I may look to add some McIlroy exposure live or target him in a different way.
Instead, the outright card starts with Tyrrell Hatton at 28-1. This would be his first career major, but he seems poised to compete. He comes in playing fantastic golf over on LIV, with a win and third-place finish in the last two events. Level of competition can always be questioned over there, but it still checks the box of Hatton getting the job done lately.
More importantly, Hatton has a lot of what the Open Championship requires. He has a decade of experience in this major, has played a ton of links golf and has a well-rounded skillset that helps when dealing with the variance these courses display. His short game is an asset, and it comes down to whether he can sustain a top-level game against a field of this caliber. There is a good chance that this 28-1 number will come down by Thursday due to a lot of interest across the golf community.
British Open Championship Pick: Tyrrell Hatton (28-1 at FanDuel)
British Open Championship Outright Pick #2: Tony Finau
I played Tommy Fleetwood last week in Scotland, so naturally I have to tag in Tony Finau to anchor the prolific non-winners on the card. He is also searching for his first career major despite seemingly being in contention more often than not. Finau now has 11 career top-10s in majors, and he is long overdue to threaten to win some of these. The Open Championship is an interesting choice for a guy like Finau, but this course should be a favorable layout to his skillset. Plus, he is still at 45-1 at some books.
Finau did not play in Scotland last week, which isn’t ideal, but outside of that, his recent form is outstanding. Finau comes in with five straight top-20s, three straight top-10s and a third at the US Open in mid-June. It’s not difficult to see what’s brought on this recent success, as his irons have been strong all year, but now his short game is dialed in. Finau has gained in five straight events around the green and three straight with the putter. If that trend continues, this is a spot where the elusive major could come.
British Open Championship Pick: Tony Finau (45-1 at FanDuel)
British Open Championship Outright Pick #3: Sungjae Im
When formulating the right skillset for this tournament, everything leads to Sungjae Im despite him also having zero majors. It’s been an interesting 2024 for Im; at times he has struggled, but he also lately has brought real upside to the table. Over his last six tournaments, he has four top-10s, including a fourth-place finish last week in Scotland. By far the most concerning part of Im’s year has not been the overall results but his performance at majors: Missed cuts at the Masters, PGA Championship and US Open. That isn’t even close to good enough for a player of this caliber that is regularly competing for wins on tour.
There are a lot of things to weigh here, from the 2024 major results to the skillset that fits perfectly for Royal Troon. Im has gained consistently gained off the tee this year, but his short game is where he can separate. Over his last three events, not only has he gained both around the green and with the putter, but it’s been two-plus strokes in each category. Those are some of the best short game numbers in this entire field, and it’s attached to a 65-1 outright number. Of course, another top-end player may add another major, but if it’s a first-time winner, Im is a candidate to be there on Sunday.
British Open Championship Pick: Sungjae Im (65-1 at FanDuel)
On top of these British Open Championship bets, OddsShopper’s model is always churning out market-based PGA betting model picks.
FanDuel has opened up the tournament matchups market, and for the moment the highest-profile golfers in the tournament are producing a solidly +EV bet. Phil Mickelson vs. Tiger Woods has -110 odds on both sides.
Sharp book Pinnacle is all the way down to -131, but the true odds — how we calculate the breakeven point for betting value — are -119 with Mickelson getting a 54% chance of winning this matchup. This is leading to a strong OS Rating of 4.
There this prop is +EV by 3.7%, so long-term this is a bet that will be very profitable if you take advantage of bets like them on a regular basis.
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