In a possible World Series preview, the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays will square off in a three-game series this weekend. Atlanta took the first game by a single run on Friday, so Tampa Bay will look to even the score at 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX. However, they’ll have to contend with a veritable strikeout machine in RHP Spencer Strider. Let’s dig into today’s Braves-Rays odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Best MLB Braves-Rays Betting Pick & Prediction: Spencer Strider Keeps Rolling Today
Braves-Rays Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Braves: -150 | Rays: +130
Braves -1.5: +110 | Rays +1.5: -130
Over 8: -115 | Under 8: -105
The Atlanta Braves have an advantage on the mound today, but not as big as the public may think. They’ll start RHP Spencer Strider, whose 3.66 ERA and 3.16 xERA lead the team. Strider is averaging an incredible 14.2 K/9 this season, which means he is striking out just over 1.5 batters per inning. He has nine or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts as well. He’ll take on RHP Taj Bradley, whose 5.27 ERA is much higher than his 3.93 xERA. Bradley’s 12.2 K/9 is nothing to scoff at, either, especially since it ticks up to 12.8 K/9 when he plays at home.
While Strider might be getting overrated relative to Bradley, Atlanta’s offense is likely getting underrated relative to Tampa Bay’s. The Braves top the MLB in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .363. They lead the next-best Los Angeles Dodgers by .015. The Tampa Bay Rays slot in at a still-impressive eighth in the metric, but their .327 xwOBA is still far below Atlanta’s. The Braves’ massive leg up on offense won’t be as obvious to those looking at standard metrics: Atlanta’s .357 wOBA and Tampa Bay’s .340 wOBA suggest a much smaller gap.
The Braves should probably be favored by a slightly larger percentage for this game. Questions about the sustainability of Strider’s start to the 2023 season are fair, but the advanced metrics don’t point to many holes in his game. In contrast, those metrics point to plenty of holes in Tampa Bay’s offense. Further, the Braves have gone an incredible 15-2 in games that Strider starts, with their only losses coming to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays, two offenses ranked ahead of Tampa Bay in xwOBA.
Let’s fade the MLB’s best home team today. The Tampa Bay Rays may be a dominant 34-14 at their home park, good for an elite 70.8% winning percentage, but most numbers suggest they’re somewhat overrated. It helps that they’re facing the MLB’s best road team: the Braves have gone 29-13 outside of Atlanta, good for a 69.1% winning percentage. We can find the best price on the Braves at DraftKings? Get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager — just make sure to check the widget above for more details and disclaimers.
Best Braves-Rays MLB Pick: Braves Moneyline -150 at DraftKings
