Golf once again becomes the center of the sporting world with the US Open set to tee off this week. The PGA Tour travels to Oakmont Country Club for what is going to be as difficult of a test as players have seen the entire season. I know many courses and events get this mantra, but Oakmont and the US Open are at the top of the list. 2016 was the last time we tackled a US Open here, and the winning score of -4 might be more than enough given how difficult this course looks on paper. That said, let’s dive into our US Open PGA best bets this week.
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US Open Odds, Picks & PGA Best Bets
Oakmont is a roughly 7,300-yard par 70 that tests players on every single shot with every part of their game. It is probably most famous for its extremely thick rough, so there will be plenty of doubles and triples on players’ cards after they pitch out of the rough sideways.
Besides the rough, the fairway bunkers are another hazard, as are the extremely fast green complexes. One other absurd feature is Oakmont’s par-3 eighth hole that stretches nearly 300 yards. This isn’t a course that is comically long, but it will play insanely difficult and expose any weak part of a player’s game. For betting purposes, we are going to need to find golfers able to limit the mistakes, take advantage of the breaks and make timely putts.
US Open PGA Best Bet: Jon Rahm
Yes, Scottie Scheffler is and should be the favorite, but a course of this caliber can cause problems for anyone. We don’t get to see Rahm each week on tour, which does further the mystery since it’s tough to quantify where LIV golfers’ games are. Regardless, it’s clear Rahm is live to win in any field on any tour, and I like the situation leading into this US Open.
His results in the majors this year haven’t been awful with a 14th at the Masters and eighth at the PGA Championship, which doesn’t even tell the full story. He and Scheffler were neck and neck down the stretch before a series of unfortunate shots by Rahm late on Sunday.
Rahm already has a US Open on the resume and has shown the ability to deal with layouts like this. I have no worries about him tee to green, and Rahm has always had touch around the green. Putting will always be a wild card, but Rahm has proven he can grind when needed, which this course demands. Rahm at 12-1 is an easy click, and he is my favorite outright on the entire card.
US Open Best Bet: Jon Rahm (12-1 at DraftKings)
US Open PGA Best Bet: Ludvig Aberg
This is an interesting spot for Aberg, as he is starting to build some form just in time for this US Open. He was 16th at the Memorial and 13th in Canada, but more importantly, he seems healthy and primed to take on this beast of a course. Off the tee is crucial for success, and Aberg consistently gains here, which is step 1 to potentially competing this week. Furthermore, we know lack of experience isn’t an issue, as he’s already contended in several majors and finished 12th at the US Open just last year.
There is some disagreement in the odds throughout the market, with 30-1 out there and then some books hovering towards the 20-1 to 22-1 range. Naturally, we want to shop it and maximize the potential return, so try to find that 30-1 number. To fully break through, Aberg will need to find a hot putting week to pair with the ball striking, but that’s no different than anyone else hoping to win a major. Aberg will have more than his fair share of US Open chances, starting this year at just 30-1.
US Open Best Bet: Ludvig Aberg (30-1 at DraftKings)
US Open PGA Best Bet: Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton is another LIV player, but he stands out in this next tier of odds since he can handle what is going to be an outrageously difficult test that puts pressure on every aspect of the game. We also need Hatton also to keep the emotions in check, as there is plenty of room to implode after a few bogeys or a double, which will happen to everyone. Still, this is a player with loads of experience in Europe, where crazy conditions are common due to wind and weather. Although this isn’t exactly the same elements, the skills translate in of being able to grind, get up and down, and limit the mistakes if he hits into hazards.
Odds of 55-1 aren’t too surprising, as the best players in the world are here ready to go. Still, if we get past players like Scheffler or Bryson DeChambeau, the board quickly opens up to guys like Hatton who have a legitimate chance to complete. The goal here is to get to the weekend within the range of the leaders, and any shot on Sunday will be a success given we are getting 55-1 on the ticket.
US Open Best Bet: Tyrrell Hatton (55-1 at DraftKings)
One final thing worth mentioning before getting into the plays is keep an eye on the weather this week as we get closer to lock. Even small updates can make a huge difference in certain markets where guys might get more favorable conditions vs their matchup or category.
If you are looking for additional bets from PGA or across all the sports going on come me and the community on the Tails Marketplace. Use the code Jazzraz’s TAILS Discord for just $1. Now let’s get to the board and who is live to compete at this 2025 US Open.
