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Best Home Run Picks Today, Including Xander Bogaerts +1000 (July 9)

July 09, 2023 | 12:34 PM by Justin Martin

Home Run Bets are the talk of MLB betting. There’s nothing more exciting than cashing a home run bet at massive odds. Today, we’re keying in on Xander Bogaerts at +1000 on PointsBet.

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Best Home Run Picks Today: Xander Bogaerts and Patrick Bailey

 Xander Bogaerts +1000 | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Max Scherzer will be on the bump for the New York Mets which may shy bettors away. Not us. Scherzer has allowed 16 home runs this season with 11 of them coming from the right side. To put this number into perspective, Scherzer only allowed 13 home runs total last season in over 560 plate appearances.

Xander Bogaerts hasn’t been the biggest threat to opposing pitchers this season after leaving the Boston Red Sox, but he may be finding his groove. He’s gone deep twice already this month and has hit seven of his 10 home runs against RHP. At this price, a sprinkle is almost mandatory.

Patrick Bailey +750| Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants

PointsBet once again has the best odds for our second home run pick. Patrick Bailey is listed at +750 and beating all the major markets. FanDuel Sportsbook has the same prop listed at +480.

Bailey, a switch-hitter, has been electric from the right side of the plate. He’s hitting .417 against left-handed pitching in 36 at-bats. Very small sample size but five of those 15 hits have gone for extra bases.

Bailey will be opposed by Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. Freeland has been weirdly better at Coors Field than on the road. His 5.89 road ERA will be on full display with Bailey most likely hitting in the five-hole behind Mike Yastrzemski who has owned Freeland in his career. With Freeland allowing 14 of his 16 home runs to right-handed bats, Bailey has a great shot to send one out with the wind blowing out.

If you’re more into safer bets, Patrick Bailey over 1.5 hits + runs + rbi at -140 on DraftKings Sportsbook is a play from me.

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Justin Martin

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Justin Martin

NBA, NFL, & MLB Player Prop Analyst. Twitter: JutPicks

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