The Thursday night FOX game features two teams in the absolute doldrums and coasting to the end of the season. The Mets certainly had higher hopes for 2023, and while the Cardinals maybe are not in the same boat of disappointment, a lot has gone wrong to drive them into last place of the NL Central. Well, now they get to square off on national television, and one of baseball’s worst pitchers is getting a lovely projection right now in the OddsShopper Tool. Let’s not waste any time and dig into the best Mets-Cardinals bets for Thursday.
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Best MLB Mets-Cardinals Prop Bet & Prediction: Adam Wainwright
Odds via BetMGM
New York Mets: -140 | St. Louis Cardinals : +115
New York Mets -1.5: +110 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5: -135
Over 10.0: -120 | Under 10.0: +100
TV: FOX
Adam Wainwright has moved into the 2.5-strikeout phase of his MLB journey. Even though just about everything about his performance in 2023 proves he deserves the low line from sportsbooks, it is still pretty shocking to see. Most of his metrics are career worsts, from the 2.000-plus WHIP to the ERA approaching 9.00 to the microscopic 11.8% strikeout rate. And coming off back-to-back outings of seven-plus earned runs, Wainwright appears to be a fade from here on out.
But in fact, it is in backing Wainwright tonight that OddsShopper is finding some leverage. His line differs across books, with some placing this at 3.5, so there is disagreement as to how Wainwright’s 2023 should be affecting his over/under. Therefore, bettors have some room to work with on BetMGM, which has his line at 2.5 and the best odds on the over at -155.
As bad as he has been, Wainwright has still struck out at least three in over half his starts this year (8 of 15). He has also gotten through at least five innings in 10 of 15 outings, and his rate of 5.3 strikeouts per nine paces him to exceed 2.5 strikeouts around the five-inning mark. On top of that, the Mets have essentially punted on this season, as they are in the top half of the league in strikeouts and the bottom 10 in OPS over the last 15 days. New York is playing out the string at this point, so this is not a squad that will necessarily bombard Wainwright and chase him early.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Wainwright below:
OddsShopper’s Tool has the true odds for Wainwright over 2.5 strikeouts at -171, so even with the juice at -155, this bet is beating the market. It is also getting a strong 4% EV and 63% expected win rate, leading to a recommended bet size of $20. As a result, Wainwright’s over on 2.5 strikeout earns the top value spot for Thursday’s Mets-Cardinals game.
Best Mets-Cardinals MLB Bet: Adam Wainwright Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-155, BetMGM)
