Sunday’s MLB parlay was a winner, Monday’s a brutal loss — a Willie Calhoun single up the middle? Seriously? Well, we need to get back on the horse with a win tonight, and we’re turning to a marquee-adjacent interleague matchup. Let’s get to it with a Parlay Builder.
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Braves-Red Sox MLB Parlay: Bet365 SGP With Matt Olson
As always, we are going with value compared to the market, and OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Braves-Red Sox.
Leg #1: Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 Total Bases
It may seem crazy to fade not one but two Braves stars tonight — two Braves stars in opposite-handed matchups, mind you — but that’s where we are right now with Atlanta.
This team is not the juggernaut it was last year. Don’t get me wrong; it is still above average and has a number of high-end hitters, but even before Ronald Acuna Jr. went down, Atlanta was merely the ninth-best offense by isolated power and the eighth best by slugging percentage.
Ozzie Albies‘ declining power numbers are certainly contributing here. Though his .270 average is respectable and his 106 OPS+ still places him above average, Albies is at a career-low .388 slugging and a .117 ISO that is his worst ever by a whopping 45 points.
To put it succinctly, the power is simply not there for a hitter who has been one of the top power-hitting second basemen around when healthy.
Through 49 games, Albies has multiple total bases in 22 of them, 15 of which came via multiple hits. That seems his best path to this over, and a matchup with Kutter Crawford (who has come back to earth but still has strong hard- numbers for the year) does not portend a change.
OddsShopper feels good about fading Albies, giving him a 57% chance of recording one or zero total bases tonight. And with very little juice here at -120, that solid win rate gives this under a very strong 5.3 edge in expected value — a great start to a Braves-Red Sox parlay.
Leg #2: Matt Olson Under 1.5 Total Bases
Take everything I just said for Albies, dilute it a bit, and there you have 2024 Matt Olson. Olson has not seen quite as large a gap between his career norms and this year’s numbers, but he is in fact posting his lowest ISO and second-lowest slugging ever. Plus, his pace of 25 home runs would be his fewest since 2017 — a year where he slugged 1.003 and managed 24 homers in just 59 games.
It doesn’t help that Olson has never been much of a hitter for average. His career mark is .255 — not terrible — and this year he is down to .241. All told, he has multiple total bases in only 20 of his 57 games (35.1%), 17 of which included an extra-base hit.
We already mentioned Crawford, who is coming off some bad starts but on the year has kept the ball power down fairly well. Olson is also a reverse-splits guy, as in he hits lefties a little bit better than righties this year, and his home/away splits are pretty stark as he enters Fenway on Tuesday: .374 slugging on the road versus .504 in Atlanta.
Most importantly, fading Olson alongside Albies gets our Braves-Red Sox SGP a huge market edge of 9.78% +EV, which we love regardless of the expected win rate. The fact that it has a rock-solid 32% chance of hitting is just icing on the cake. Bet365 also has by far the most expected value for this parlay, with SuperBook second best at 6.25%. Shop your bets, people.
That gets us to +242.75 on this parlay overall — and we need it since Willie Calhoun got only his seventh RBI to screw us out of a win last night.
MLB Parlay Today: +242 at bet365
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OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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