Nobody went yard for us yesterday, but I’m encouraged that the pitcher we targeted — RHP Noah Syndergaard — coughed up a boatload of extra-base hits and two home runs. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals | 7:15 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Francisco Lindor at FanDuel
The St. Louis Cardinals are content to keep starting RHP Adam Wainwright on his farewell tour, but that decision will likely cost them some runs — and, potentially, some home runs. To put it nicely, Wainwright has struggled this year. He owns an 8.78 ERA and 7.79 xERA to go with a .618 SLG allowed and .577 xSLG allowed. He ranks in the first percentile for those two expected metrics. Wainwright has also coughed up 14 actual and 12.6 expected home runs.
Francisco Lindor is well-positioned to take advantage of Wainwright’s struggles. The switch-hitting shortstop fares well against RHPs, with 13 home runs and a .450 SLG recorded against them over 313 at-bats. Wainwright struggles against LHBs as well — he has coughed up 23 extra-base hits and seven home runs to them, good for a .705 SLG allowed. Lindor has recorded only two hits and no home runs in nine career at-bats against Wainwright, but the veteran pitcher has taken a major step back this season.
We’re getting a great deal on this home run pick at -120 (54.6%) at DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Francisco Lindor +450 at FanDuel
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians | 7:15 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Spencer Torkelson at FanDuel
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Torkelson will take on RHP Xzavion Curry and the Cleveland Guardians. Curry owns a 3.39 ERA but only a 5.15 xERA and has struggled in limited action as a starter. His .407 SLG allowed isn’t bad, but his .483 xSLG allowed is in the ninth percentile. He has taken on Torkelson for two at-bats so far, allowing him to only record one single, but that’s not a particularly meaningful sample. Curry has also coughed up seven home runs and a .503 SLG to RHBs like Torkelson.
That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +230 (30.3%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +235 (29.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Spencer Torkelson +235 at FanDuel
