MLB Home Run Picks: Value in Today’s Late Games (July 5)

This pick makes plenty of sense given Soroka’s recent struggles and Bell’s success against RHPs. Soroka has allowed at least one home run in all three of his starts this year, and he gave up two to both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins. Four of those home runs went to LHBs, and Bell, a switch-hitter, is likely to hit from that side of the plate against Soroka. Bell has recorded five home runs and 15 extra-base hits against RHPs this year. He hit 10 home runs against them last year.

That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +581 (14.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +630 (13.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!

New to Dinger Tuesday and can get $200 in bonus bets by placing a $20 wager!

Best MLB Home Run Bet: Josh Bell +630 at FanDuel

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Daulton Varsho at FanDuel

We could target a hot hitter like Ozzie Albies, who just hit a pair of home runs last night, but that isn’t profitable over the long term. Instead, let’s back one somewhat cold batter to turn things around: Daulton Varsho. He has a great matchup against RHP Lance Lynn, who has surrendered a whopping 22 home runs and 20 expected home runs. He leads the MLB in the former metric and ranks fourth in the latter.

This matchup is a perfect storm for Varsho to send one over the fence because both he and Lynn have extreme splits. Of Lynn’s 22 home runs allowed, 16 have one to left-handed batters like Varsho. LHBs have recorded 27 extra-base hits against Lynn and own a 1.054 OPS. Varsho has recorded 12 home runs and 23 extra-base hits against RHPs for a .689 OPS. He has just two extra-base hits and no home runs against LHPs.

Let’s target Varsho to hit a home run and record over 1.5 bases. Varsho most recently cashed the over on his total bases prop last Wednesday, and he last hit a home run in mid-June. But despite his recent struggles, Varsho ranks third on the Blue Jays in home runs (12) and fourth in expected home runs (11.9). With Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field ranked seventh among MLB stadiums in park factors for home runs to LHBs, Varsho is hard to turn down at a price of +400 (20%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best MLB Home Run Bet: Daulton Varsho +400 at FanDuel

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings

I can’t leave tonight’s nightcap off the card. The Pittsburgh Pirates will stay out west for another game, and they’ll trust RHP Osvaldo Bido on the mound. Bido has only surrendered one home run across four major-league starts and 19 innings pitched, good for 0.47 HR/9. However, he has given up seven home runs across 74.1 innings pitched in the minors, good for 0.85 HR/9. LHBs own one home run and two extra-base hits against Bido in the majors, good for a .763 OPS, but three home runs and 12 extra-base hits in the minors, good for a .804 OPS.

Freddie Freeman, a LHB, stands out as a sharp target against Bido. He ranks fourth on the Dodgers in both home runs (14) and expected home runs (13.4) but leads the team in expected weighted on-base average (.408). Although he has fared better against same-handed pitchers this season, that datapoint is an outlier — he racked up a better OPS and more home runs against RHPs in both of the last two seasons. But despite his relative underperformance when facing RHPs this season, Freeman has still recorded five home runs and 27 extra-base hits against them.

As with Varsho, I advise backing Freeman to hit a home run and go over 1.5 bases. The odds for him to record at least two bases sit down at -130 (56.5%) at FanDuel Sportsbook but come in at a nice +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. We can also pick Freeman to hit a home run today at odds of +450 (18.2%) at DraftKings, which is better than the +434 (18.7%) available at Pinnacle, a sharp book. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!

Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +450 at DraftKings