Let’s go! Yesterday’s column cashed a +140 ticket on Jake Burger to tally over 1.5 bases (and a +475 ticket for him to hit a home run) as well as a -160 ticket for Pablo Lopez to stay under 6.5 strikeouts. Let’s roll that momentum forward into today’s slate as we dive into my recommended MLB player prop picks for Friday’s card — we’re getting exposure to one player prop bet, one home run pick and one bet from our how to bet on MLB player props.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, April 5
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Rafael Devers
The Boston Red Sox will stay out on the West Coast for a road series with the Los Angeles Angels this weekend, and tonight’s matchup is a great spot to back their LHHs. The Angels will start RHP Griffin Canning, who is on our list of pitchers to fade this season.
Canning started the year by coughing up seven hits and a home run to the Baltimore Orioles last week, good for a brutal 9.00 ERA. LHHs slashed .353/.357/.643 in that contest.
Canning was better against LHHs than RHHs last season, holding them to a slash line of .217/.287/.345, so last week’s game could’ve been an outlier. However, that’s not enough to deter me from backing Rafael Devers today.
Devers recorded impressive stats last year, notching a .282 xBA (88th percentile) and a .539 xSLG (96th percentile) with a monstrous 55.1% hard-hit rate (98th percentile).
Importantly, Devers feasted against RHPs. He slashed .270/.357/.505 against them last year. He has gotten off to a bit of a cold start against them this year, slashing only .188/.278/.438, but I’m optimistic it’s a funk he’ll break out of soon.
Devers will also benefit from friendly weather conditions. The forecast calls for 23 mph winds blowout out of right field in Angel Stadium today, which should benefit all LHHs when it comes to power. I’m backing Devers to record at least two total bases and to go yard.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Rafael Devers home run live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Tommy Henry
For as excited as I am about the Red Sox today (I also have action on Masataka Yoshida), I turned to our MLB betting model to help me find some other sharp picks to diversify my MLB player prop card. This bet for LHP Tommy Henry looks like a sharp play. Henry was an average pitcher last season, recording a 4.30 xERA (44th percentile), but he struggled to strike batters out, recording a 16.8% strikeout rate (11th percentile). He now takes on a Braves lineup that ranks 10th in strikeouts taken per game this year (8.4) after ranking sixth (7.9).
If you’re curious about how the model works, you can my code (“ISIROIS”) to take 20% off when you first sign up.
Today, our MLB betting model advises going with Henry’s under on the strikeout market today because of a market disparity: the under 4.5 strikeouts will cost you only -145 at DraftKings despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -177. We’re scoring a ton of edge relative to the market here, especially with FanDuel already moving to 3.5. The true odds for this bet are -158.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Tommy Henry total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Brandon Nimmo
We’ve been profiting on a load of home run bets thanks to our MLB betting model — if you check my Pikkit (@ISIROIS), you’ll see that two days ago, we were on Blaze Alexander (+1100), Ketel Marte (+430) and Joey Gallo (+370) — all players I wouldn’t have bet on if not for our tools.
Not many home run picks are popping today, but this one for Brandon Nimmo stands out as a +EV bet.
This bet for Nimmo is all about beating the market: Pinnacle is taking action on Nimmo to go yard at odds of +417, but FanDuel has him priced at +520, and most other public books have him at +400 or shorter.
Nimmo hasn’t mashed a home run (or an expected home run) this season, but he hit 24 actual and 26.7 expected home runs last season. He now gets to play in a hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with 10 mph winds blowing out through right-center field.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Brandon Nimmo home run live odds page!
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