MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today for Wednesday, May 1 (2024)

Andy Pages was called up to the Dodgers lineup in the middle of April and has a decent number to attack tonight for total bases. He’s cleared this total in six of 13 games in April and now faces Montgomery on the road. It’s easy to see Pages fade a bit in this star-studded lineup, but he’s been a product of variance as much as anything.

We get a good edge against the market, as the best price for under 1.5 total bases is -127 at Caesars Sportsbook. This significantly beats the true market price of -149 on OddsShopper. This s for a 6.8% EV edge, which is key in building a bank roll over time.

Pages hasn’t struck out a bunch but hasn’t walked either; he’s going to have to work some counts against Montgomery. We’ve seen some pop from Pages with his bat, but it’s still a small sample size. Montgomery isn’t striking out batters at a high clip, but his .286 xwOBA is enough to back.

Right away we get a fantastic price fading Butto’s 5.5 strikeout total: -110 at MLB betting tools, finding +EV spots in the market to attack.

Butto is showing signs of leaking oil after two strong starts to the season. It’s been more of a knock around game for opposing hitters, taking advantage of Butto’s 90 exit velocity and 50% hard-hit percentage. Even the 27% strikeout rate is somewhat mitigated by his 13% walk rate and concerning .347 xwOBA.

This is a prime spot for the Cubs to chase Butto from the mound, keeping his start short and the Mets down. Play the under.

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The day after Dinger Tuesday can leave people chasing some bad numbers. Even if you made your bet back in bonus money, it’s still vital to shop these long shot type plays. We get that opportunity with Teoscar Hernandez tonight against Montgomery and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We anticipate no two-hour delay due to any bee- or insect-related issues, allowing the Dodgers to swing away on Montgomery. The Dodgers made a major splash this offseason by g Shohei Ohtani to an already beefed-up lineup. Ohtani is currently the only Dodger with a higher exit velocity and hard-hit percentage than Hernandez.

Teoscar is tearing the cover off the baseball. With six dingers already on the campaign, a lower launch angle hasn’t hurt him. We get a fantastic price from FanDuel.

That’s step one in securing profit, especially with bets where a +430 play is on the shorter side.