Let’s go! Yesterday’s article went 2-0 again, cashing Bobby Witt Jr. on the total bases market (just not getting the home run) and Tanner Bibee on the strikeout market. My full card, which was available both on expert picks page, profited four units and cashed a Joc Pederson home run. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, July 6, and for more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, July 6
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr.
I could talk about a lot of other plays, but we’re just going to run it back with Bobby Witt Jr. in Coors. Obviously, it’s Coors Field, so we’re benefiting from the elevation change, but we’re also benefiting from the pitcher. Witt gets to take on LHP Austin Gomber, who is allowing RHBs to slash .278/.333/.444. Gomber is giving up 1.4 xHR/9 in Coors.
Witt was trading at -104 on Caesars to go over 2.5 total bases when we bet on him yesterday, and most books have stacked the juice to -125 or worse. But we can still find that prop for -115 at Fanatics, a number I don’t expect to be around forever. Make sure to get on that prop alongside the home run bet.
We’re getting Witt at +310 on BetMGM to go yard, which, while a more efficient number than the +400 we got yesterday, still undervalues his power. Witt may have just 14 actual home runs on the year, but he has 18.9 expected home runs, including 21 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Coors Field.
These odds are too friendly for a rising star that is hitting as well as Witt is right now. Over the last seven games, Witt is slashing .478/.480/.957. That isn’t sustainable, but he is in Coors today, and the .327 xBA (100th percentile) and .603 xSLG (98th) cement his status among baseball’s elite.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr. home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Seth Lugo
We’re staying in Coors Field tonight for today’s top MLB player prop pick. It’s RHP Seth Lugo taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals, and while the RHP has put together an impressive season with an 11-2 record and 2.17 ERA, his expected stats paint a different picture. Lugo owns a 3.72 xERA (58th percentile) and .241 xBA (53rd). The 22.7% strikeout rate (53rd percentile) also marks steady year-over-year regression.
Lugo could get smacked today in Coors Field. While I’m certainly skeptical of Colorado’s offense, as they rank 27th in both strikeouts taken per game (9.5) and strikeout rate versus RHPs (25.3%), things have been improving lately. Colorado ranks 23rd in strikeout rate versus RHPs since June 1 (24.4%) and 15th since June 15 (23%). Let’s hope they can keep improving in tonight’s game against Lugo.
Lugo’s strikeout total is trading at 5.5 across the market, which he has flown by in his last three starts. However, he has beaten it in just seven of his 18 starts (38.8%) this year. You’ll find the under trading for odds of between +130 and -103 across the market. Pinnacle is taking action on this one at -103. As a result, the off-market positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
With this example, Lugo’s true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are estimated as +123. We’re only beating that price at FanDuel and Circa. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 1,186 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher with at least two hours before game start. Of those bets, 671 won, yielding an 11.1% ROI!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Seth Lugo total strikeouts live odds page!
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