Skip to content
Categories MLB

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today for Wednesday, August 14

Updated August 14, 2024 | 12:11 pm CDT by Isaiah Sirois

It’s another exciting night in the MLB this evening, and we’ve got baseball to stream from the early afternoon to the late night. With a relatively unimpressive slate of pitchers, plenty of batter props stand out — and unders for those very pitchers. You can find my personal their results here. Without further ado, let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wedneday, August 14. For the rest of my notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X!

Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB player prop betting strategy guide!

MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, August 14

React App

MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jameson Taillon

The Chicago Cubs will take on the Cleveland Guardians tonight. You can tune in live via MLB TV because it’s their free game of the day. What better way to watch than with a bet to sweat on it? With RHP Jameson Taillon taking the mound, you can find some value on the strikeout prop markets.

The Guardians are excellent at avoiding strikeouts. They rank fourth this season in strikeouts taken per game (7.3) and average even fewer at home (7). It’s been rougher sledding of late — Cleveland ranks third on the season in strikeout rate versus RHPs (19.2%) but only 10th since the MLB All-Star Break (20.9%). I have faith in them here, though.

That’s just a quick projection-based reason to fade Taillon. There are several market-based reasons, too. If you don’t know what market-based betting is, read our guide to positive expected value (+EV):

To help you spot similar sports betting model indexes the odds from every book. Once that’s done, it generates a breakeven price for each bet called “true odds.” With that number, it estimates the expected value of every bet on the board that day.

Here, Taillon’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts clock in at -129, which is in line with the market consensus. Most books have the under priced between -130 and -150. Edges like this won’t make you a ton of money at once, but, over the long term, they can.

So how much money can systematic +EV betting make you? Check out our results page. As of today, our model had identified 3,062 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 3 or higher this season. Of those, 1,755 won, yielding a 12% ROI for those who tailed.

MLB Player Prop Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 3.5 Strikeouts -120 at Jameson Taillon total strikeouts live odds page!


MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani

The Los Angeles Dodgers will visit the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, and it’s RHP Frankie Montas taking the bump for the Brew Crew. Montas, who the Brewers landed at the deadline, hasn’t been great. He is coughing up 1.2 xHR/9, which, while not terrible, would be 1.6 HR/9 if he had played every game in Milwaukee.

The big issue for Montas has been LHBs, who are slashing .280/.371/.505 against him with 24 extra-base hits and 12 home runs in 214 at-bats. This should benefit LHB Shohei Ohtani, who is slashing a dominant .308/.408/.696 versus RHPs. Ohtani is even slashing .407/.515/.963 against Montas over a 27 at-bat sample that includes five home runs!

Of course, the books know all of the above. Ohtani’s home run odds clock in at +200 (33.3%) or worse at every major book. With Ohtani averaging 0.29 home runs per game, the +200 is enticing, but it’s a bit too low for me to get that excited. While there is still some value on that number, we can get even more value at DraftKings.

Today, DraftKings

The best MLB player prop bets and home run picks for today, Wednesday, August 14, including a bet for Shohei Ohtani...
Sign up for OddsShopper’s +EV tools today! Take 15% off with code “PROFIT15”!

MLB Home Run Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani +180 (+380 Boosted!) at Shohei Ohtani home run live odds page!


React App

OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? best +EV MLB bets today.

Categories MLB
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks for Wednesday, August 14
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions Today for Wednesday, August 14
Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

Next Story

EVEN MORE Stories of Bankroll Building with Portfolio EV — Plus 50% Off Your Next Month!

Trending & Related

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 22: Let’s Go Off the Beaten Bath for a Bomb…

NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, April 22

MLB Home Run Pick Today for April 20: Special Giveaway Tomorrow If We Get This Tater …

Betting 101

What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting

Positive Expected Value Explained: How to Find Positive EV Edges in Sports Betting

Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning

Sports Betting Software Showdown: Which Tool Is Right for You?

Sports Betting Resources

  • Positive EV NFL Bets
  • Expert NFL Picks
  • Live NBA Odds
  • Positive EV NBA Bets
  • Expert NBA Picks
  • Live NFL Odds
  • NFL Parlay Calculator
  • Positive EV MLB Bets
  • Expert MLB Picks
  • Positive EV College Football Bets
  • Expert College Football Picks

Featured Articles

EVEN MORE Stories of Bankroll Building with Portfolio EV — Plus 50% Off Your Next Month!
June 2, 2025 3:10 pm | Sam Smith
How Bettors Used Portfolio EV to Beat the Books in May
June 1, 2025 12:56 pm | Sam Smith
Why the Sportsbooks Hate You When You Actually Start Winning
May 20, 2025 2:17 pm | Dave Loughran
What is Dinger Tuesday? How to Beat FanDuel’s Promotion
May 20, 2025 2:10 pm | Isaiah Sirois
How Portfolio EV Built My NBA Bankroll from $100 to $1,200
May 16, 2025 7:11 am | Greg Ehrenberg
You Don’t Need to Be a Genius to Beat the Books — Just the Right Tools
April 26, 2025 8:15 am | Dave Loughran

Related Articles

MLB Betting Strategy: 5 Tips for Winning on MLB Betting Sites
June 5, 2025 1:56 pm | Dave Loughran
MLB Home Run Betting Strategy: How to Profit on Home Run Bets
June 5, 2025 11:52 am | Isaiah Sirois
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Pablo Lopez (June 3)
June 3, 2025 12:25 pm | Danny Burke
FREE First MLB Portfolio on Portfolio EV: A Step-by-Step Guide
May 29, 2025 11:56 am | Sam Smith
MLB Betting: What are NRFI & YRFI Bets? First Inning Bets Explained
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Justin Martin
How to Bet on MLB Strikeout Props: Strategy & Expert Advice
April 23, 2025 7:25 am | Isaiah Sirois

Best Sleeper Promo Code Today
June 7, 2025 6:42 am
Best Underdog Promo Code Today
June 7, 2025 6:42 am
Best ParlayPlay Promo Code Today
June 7, 2025 6:42 am
How Do I Make Money Sports Betting? Portfolio EV, Of Course
June 6, 2025 11:00 am
MLB Betting Strategy: 5 Tips for Winning on MLB Betting Sites
June 5, 2025 1:56 pm
What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting
June 5, 2025 11:54 am
MLB Home Run Betting Strategy: How to Profit on Home Run Bets
June 5, 2025 11:52 am
Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!
June 5, 2025 11:50 am
Positive Expected Value Explained: How to Find Positive EV Edges in Sports Betting
June 5, 2025 11:45 am
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today: Chet Holmgren (June 5)
June 5, 2025 9:01 am

How Can I Find the Best Sports Betting and DFS App Bonuses?

If you're a new sports bettor, it's hard to know where to start. In fact, it's simpler than it seems, because there are use OddsShopper's Free Bet Converter to maximize your beginning bankroll

Get a bonus code for BetMGM

Get a promo code Caesars Sportsbook

Best DraftKings Promo Code

Get a promo code for DraftKings

Use a promo code for FanDuel

Claim a promo code for PrizePicks

Get a promo code for UnderDog

the ranks of the OddsShopper Hall of Fame

  • Free Expert Picks

    • Free NBA Picks
    • Free MLB Picks
    • Free NFL Picks
    • Free NHL Picks
    • Free NCAAB Picks
    • Free NCAAF Picks
    • Free Golf Picks
    • Free UFC Picks
    • Free EPL Picks
    • Free Tennis Picks
    • Free WNBA Picks
  • Positive EV Bets

    • Positive EV NBA Bets
    • Positive EV MLB Bets
    • Positive EV NFL Bets
    • Positive EV NHL Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAB Bets
    • Positive EV NCAAF Bets
    • Positive EV Golf Bets
    • Positive EV UFC Bets
    • Positive EV EPL Bets
    • Positive EV Tennis Bets
    • Positive EV WNBA Bets
  • Betting Tools

    • Arbitrage Opportunities
    • Parlay Builder
    • PrizePicks Entry Builder
    • Underdog Entry Builder
    • Sleeper Entry Builder
    • Free Bet Converter
  • Articles

    • All Articles
    • NBA Articles
    • NFL Articles
    • NCAAF Articles
    • MLB Articles
    • PGA Articles
    • NHL Articles
    • NASCAR Articles
    • MMA Articles
  • Betting Calculators

    • Expected Value Calculator
    • Hold Calculator
    • Parlay Calculator
    • Odds Converter
  • Live Odds

    • Live NBA Odds
    • Live MLB Odds
    • Live NFL Odds
    • Live NHL Odds
    • Live NCAAB Odds
    • Live NCAAF Odds
    • Live Golf Odds
    • Live UFC Odds
    • Live EPL Odds
    • Live Tennis Odds
  • Sportsbook Promo Codes

    • BetMGM Bonus Codes
    • Bet365 Bonus Codes
    • FanDuel Promo Codes
    • DraftKings Promo Codes
    • Caesars Promo Codes
    • BetRivers Promo Codes
    • Sleeper Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Underdog Fantasy Promo Codes
    • Betr Picks Promo Codes

    • Us
    • of Use
    • Stokastic
OddsShopper Logo
© 2024 Stokastic.All Rights reserved.
This site contains commercial content, We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. OddsShopper makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event. Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.