Uh… who’s ready for UFC 300? Tonight’s card is okay, but really only as a source of betting value — the stakes are dwarfed by what we’ll see next weekend. Let’s get into our Alexander Hernandez-Damon Jackson pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Alexander Hernandez-Damon Jackson Pick, Odds and Preview
Hernandez-Jackson Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Hernandez: -220 | Jackson: +160
Hernandez -3.5: -145 | Jackson +3.5: +110
Over 2.5: +130 | Under 2.5: -166
Hernandez-Jackson Pick & Preview
The penultimate fight of the night matches up Alexander Hernandez (14-7) with submission specialist Damon Jackson (22-6-1). The oddsmakers favor Hernandez in this one, but his shaky takedown defense will likely put him in dangerous positions against Jackson. His inefficiencies on the feet don’t make up for this hole enough to justify him backing him as a substantial favorite.
Hernandez’s peak in the UFC seems to have come in his first bout. With a stunning KO against Beneil Dariush in his debut, Hernandez was set to put himself in the contender conversation with a few more good wins. Unfortunately, he floundered, going 5-6 in his following eleven fights. Nonetheless, oddsmakers favor him against Jackson, who is coming off two straight losses after rattling off four wins in a row.
This is something of a stylistic clash. Hernandez tends to strike more than he grapples, landing 4.63 significant strikes per minute compared to securing 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes.
On the other hand, Jackson attains 2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes while only landing 3.02 significant strikes per minute. His grappling ability is best documented by the fact that 14 of his 22 professional victories came by submission. The fight will likely go to the fighter that can successfully impose their preferred style on the other.
In my view, it’s more likely that Jackson will have more success than Hernandez in getting the fight he wants. Hernandez lacks a strong takedown defense, which could put him in difficult positions against Jackson. He only defends the takedown at a 60% rate.
Jackson’s strength in grappling shines more when he gets his opponents to the ground than it does in attempting to take his opponents down, so Hernandez’s relative weakness in this regard is a glaring problem.
Further, Hernandez has too many holes in his striking to believe that he can make up for the grappling difference. He throws 4.63 significant strikes per minute, which is solid but nowhere near the most aggressive pace for a featherweight. However, he only lands 41% of his significant strikes thrown. This inefficiency is costly as he absorbs 4.90 significant strikes per minute.
Jackson’s striking is comparably weak, as he lands at a 40% rate and absorbs 0.44 significant strikes per minute than he lands. That Hernandez’s and Jackson’s striking are close is the central issue. Hernandez has too thin of an edge over a grappling-heavy fighter to expect that he can impose his will.
Jackson displays poor takedown defense, but it’s not an area that Hernandez should look to exploit, because it will engage him in the dangerous grappling battles Jackson is hoping for. Overall, I would have the fight slightly favor Jackson, so anything in the plus-money is a worthwhile bet.
Best UFC Hernandez-Jackson Bet & Pick: Jackson +160 at DraftKings
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