If you’re like me, you’re starting to get excited about UFC 300. But the big card is still a weekend away, and we’ve got plenty of betting value to exploit tonight, too. Let’s get into our Morgan Charriere-Chepe Mariscal pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Morgan Charriere-Chepe Mariscal Pick, Odds and Preview
Charriere-Mariscal Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Charriere: -120 | Mariscal: +100
Charriere -3.5: +140 | Mariscal +3.5: -185
Over 2.5: -210 | Under 2.5: +160
Charriere-Mariscal Pick & Preview
The fourth fight of the main card comes between Morgan Charriere (19-9-1) and Chepe Mariscal (15-6). This bout could determine the next hot prospect in the featherweight division as both fighters have a shot at the honor.
Mariscal has more experience than Charriere, and he stopped two solid prospects in his only UFC appearances. Because he showed more in a limited sample, I like Mariscal as the slight underdog — there are just too many question marks surrounding Charriere for my liking.
Charriere had an undoubtedly impressive debut, stopping Manolo Zechinni with brutal kicks to the liver in the first round. This wasn’t a fluke, either, as he landed 26 significant strikes compared to Zechinni’s nine.
Ironically, the ease with which he flew through Zechinni gives me pause when analyzing this matchup. On the one hand, Charriere could just be that good, and he will make every fighter lower down in the rankings look that way.
On the other, he hasn’t been battle-tested, which could prove costly if he can’t stand up to the numerous challenges a full UFC fight will throw at him.
In his only appearance, Charriere only absorbed nine strikes, didn’t have to defend the takedown or any submission attempts, and was never rocked.
He didn’t even have to hold up in his cardio, which is a big test given that he landed 6.75 significant strikes per minute. Far too often fighters that start this way struggle when they’re pulled into deeper waters and are forced to sink or swim.
These questions don’t surround Mariscal nearly to the same degree. First, Mariscal has two quality wins, one against Jack Jenkins and another against Trevor Peek, both of whom are undefeated (3-0) outside of their losses to Mariscal. Further, Mariscal’s fights have gone deeper than Charriere’s, with one ending by decision and another ending in the middle of the second round. While it evidences that Mariscal’s power may not be on the same level as Charriere’s, his ability to fight at the pace he wants is much more dependable.
Mariscal lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute and attains 3.22 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Further, he defends himself sufficiently, only absorbing 3.95 significant strikes per minute and defending the takedown at a 100% clip. This level of aggression and well-roundedness is nothing Charriere experienced to this point in the Octagon. If he were a significant underdog, these question marks would be far easier to accept, but as a favorite, they’re hard to overlook.
Ultimately, we know more about what Mariscal’s strengths and weaknesses are while we don’t know the same about Charriere. I’m willing to ride with the slight underdog for this reason, but it’s entirely possible that I get burned if Charriere is the real deal.
Best UFC Charriere-Mariscal Bet & Pick: Under 2.5 -140 at DraftKings
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