Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Magic-Cavaliers | May 5

Banchero has really upped his game this series, averaging over 25 points a game (up from 22.6 in the regular season) and increasing his true shooting percentage by 1.5 points. He is not getting to the free-throw line as much, but he is shooting more 3’s and making them at a higher clip to make up for the lack of fouls drawn.

All that said, 25.2 points per game is still below the 25.5 line, and with Franz Wagner stepping up more offensively, Banchero has gone for 26 or more in only three of six games this series. That includes a 9-point outing in Orlando’s Game 4 win.

Bet365 is holding the odds on under 25.5 points for Banchero firm at -115, while other books either have the line at 24.5 or have 25.5 juiced to -130 or shorter. Either way, 25.5 gives us the extra point of buffer room, and the -115 makes it a +EV given the true odds of -126.

Of course, a Banchero explosion is easily in play; he went for almost 40 in Game 5. However, the results with OddsShopper’s model prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run when you take these +EV bets.

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