We continue the pivotal Game 4’s of the first round of the NBA playoffs, and things appear to be leveling out a bit. The most important spots have major injury questions that we really need to take note of. Here I’ve found a couple bets that are worth some action, thanks to NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kawhi Leonard & More
Obi Toppin Player Prop
This bet is running away with the title of best value on the board for today’s slate, and there is a good chance it won’t be up much longer.
For one thing, Obi Toppin‘s rebound line is 4.5 at almost every ESPN BET have set it at 3.5 instead, but ESPN BET at least compensated by putting the odds on the over at -180. FanDuel, meanwhile, went with -150 for over 3.5. Boom — we have value out the wazoo now.
Toppin averaged 3.9 rebounds a game this year and has grabbed at least five in all three games of this Bucks series. Milwaukee is not getting any healthier; Damian Lillard now s Giannis Antetokounmpo on the bench. This portends a lot of missed shows from the Bucks and fewer viable rebounders, thus Toppin is going to have his chances, especially against the bench squad.
FanDuel odds of -150 give this bet an EV rating of 10.1%.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Obi Toppin live odds page!
Kawhi Leonard Player Prop
Kawhi Leonard is not healthy. The man has played a total of 60 minutes in the month of April and take 24 shots — not exactly a great recipe for loading up the box score. Tyronn Lue has clearly been managing Leonard’s minutes in his return from injury, and even though the Clippers’ backs — while perhaps not flush against the wall — are getting quite close to the wall, it’s a fair expectation that Lue will stick with the James Harden, lead ball handler formula.
Harden is playing a crazy number of minutes, going over 42 in the last two games and playing 39 in Game 1. Leonard, meanwhile, was limited to 20 points + rebounds + assists last time out and 24 the game before.
He is actually doing good work on the glass, but the scoring is down big time — 15 and 9 points in this series — and he is not playmaking nearly enough. Four total assists in the two games mean Leonard needs to score to hit this number, and the volume does not appear to be there.
There are a number of +EV spots for this under, interestingly enough, with Leonard under 27.5 points + rebounds + assists having a 54% expected win rate. BetMGM is +EV by nearly 4% to lead all players props among super stars today
Obviously, Leonard could be hustling us and may come out and drop 40 on Dallas. However, the results prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run when you take these +EV bets.
For more picks, sign up for guide to using +EV tools!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kawi Leonard Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 at BetMGM)
For the best price currently available, see our Kawhi Leonard live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
