For once, No House Advantage projections on NBA Bet Pro are pointing the finger at the top of the mountain, naming three A-listers among the best values for NBA player props. Of course, Stokastic is liking unders on two of these, so the superstars are still getting shorted.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at No House Advantage‘s best NBA player props for Thursday, and as always, you can guarantee that you are getting the best value on your props by g up for NBA Bet Pro. Subscribe now and get a seven-day free trial!
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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props
Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points
What on Earth even is this over/under? Did the linemaker short circuit? OddsShopper shows Siakam’s points line at 24.5 at every sportsbook, yet for some reason, No House Advantage has him at 19.5. Jump on this now before they catch on and change it.
Siakam is averaging a career-high 25.5 points per game — that is 6 points higher than this 19.5 over/under. He has only scored 19 points or fewer eight times in 35 games (77.1% over clip). On top of that, there is a good chance that Rudy Gobert will miss yet another game, as he is a game-time decision. The Timberwolves crater defensively when Gobert is off the floor, so if he cannot play, this bet is a lock of all locks. At the moment, NBA Bet Pro is projecting Siakam for 25.3 points and a 74% win expectancy for the over.
Joel Embiid Under 10.5 Rebounds
Both 76ers superstars are projecting under with several of their player props, but the under on Embiid’s rebounds has the highest expected win rate among them (63%). At 9.8 a game this season, Embiid is averaging a career low for rebounds — excluding his 31-game rookie season — and a matchup with Portland is not a great spot for him to elevate that number since Jusuf Nurkic is probable to play. Nurkic is himself averaging 10 rebounds a game. As a team, the Trail Blazers have the No. 10 rebounding rate in the NBA (76ers are 27th), while Nurkic individually has grabbed double digits in six of the last seven.
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The other problem is Portland plays at essentially the same pace as Philadelphia — 23rd and 25th, respectively. All of this amounts to fewer rebounding opportunities for Embiid, and as such, Stokastic projects him for only 9.6 rebounds tonight.
Damian Lillard Under 32.5 Points
Speaking of pace in the 76ers-Trail Blazers game, that will also have a negative effect on Lillard’s point total. Lillard has been on a torrid scoring hot streak, dropping at least 33 points in five of the last six, including a 50-point game against the Cavaliers a week ago. However, that has ballooned his line here to 32.5, which is 1 point higher than his over/under industrywide. So No House Advantage is providing a little extra value here on shorting the red-hot Lillard.
Again, Philadelphia presents a slight pace-down spot for the Trail Blazers. Only Lillard, Nurkic, Jerami Grant are projecting for at least 10 points right now despite all of them expected to play close to 30 minutes. Stokastic has Lillard at 29.3 points in the projections, which happens to also be exactly his season average. That gives the under on 32.5 a 63% expected win rate.
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