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NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today, January 16 (2025)

Updated January 16, 2025 | 3:46 pm CDT by Sam Smith

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NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today

Alex Caruso Lower Than 1.5 Steals

Everyone’s favorite move is fading Alex Caruso in a defensive stat when he’s taking on an elite opponent and his team has several key players out. But as always, we never go broke following the data rather than our own sentiments.

In this case, Stokastic’s NBA Stat Projections have Caruso at just under 20 minutes despite Isaiah Hartenstein being out, leading to a steals projection that is right around 1.5. Now, since that is the mark Caruso has to hit tonight, keep in mind that these are median projections and you have to consider variable outcomes. We have Caruso at a 54% chance of getting one steal or fewer, even though he has recorded multiple in four straight games.

The Cavaliers also turn the ball over at a top-3 rate (in a good way), so we’re banking on Caruso merely being a great on-ball defender without the stats to back it up as we build our Underdog entry.

Amen Thompson Lower Than 15.5 Points

There is a genuine case for Thompson as a Most Improved Player this year, but 15.5 is a pretty massive leap for a projection.

As a comparison, Stokastic’s NBA Stat Projections give him 14.6 tonight, and Thompson only has 12 games of 16 points or more this year in 37 opportunities. Granted, he has hit the mark in three of his last five, but we’re talking 7-for-17 since the start of December, so the sample size of scoring in bunches is not particularly large.

The major focus here is the projection, which puts Thompson lower than 15.5 at a 54% expected win rate. All in all, the full Underdog Standard entry has a strong 29% chance of winning 3x.

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Sam Smith

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Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015 while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With OddsShopper, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with OddsShopper's data to bring you the best betting information possible.

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