We’ve got midweek CUSA action on tap this Thursday, so if you’re not thrilled by the Bears-Commanders game (who would be?), you’ve got some alternatives for your football fix. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Sam Houston State Liberty odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 6 bet!
Sam Houston State-Liberty Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 6
Sam Houston State-Liberty Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Sam Houston: +720 | Liberty: -1200
Sam Houston +19.5: -110 | Liberty -19.5: -110
Over 45.5: -115 | Under 45.5: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 5 at 7 p.m. ET
Sam Houston State-Liberty Pick & Prediction
We’ve got an absolute thriller scheduled in Lynchburg this Thursday night. The Liberty Flames will host the Sam Houston State Bearkats, at 7 p.m., and they are a massive 19.5-point home favorite for the matchup. Liberty has rolled to a 4-0 record this year, but their wins have come against pretty awful teams — Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Buffalo and FIU. Still, the Flames are undefeated against the spread and are winning by an average margin of 21.5 points per game. For comparison, Sam Houston State is 2-1-1 against the spread despite losing by an average margin of 15.5 points per game.
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Sam Houston State plays a slow and inefficient brand of football. The Bearkats rank a dreadful 132nd in yards per play (3.5). They also rank 115th in seconds per play (28.7). These factors combine to make Thursday’s game a great spot for under bettors. Sam Houston State is coming off a season-best 28-point showing against Jacksonville State, but they only averaged 4.6 yards per play in that one, and half of their points came on drives that went for less than 40 yards. The team’s offense enters Week 6 ranked 133rd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) while their defense ranks a not nearly as terrible 88th.
The Liberty Flames are good, but are they good enough to cash the over 45.5 by themselves? I doubt it. The Flames might be averaging the seventh-most points per game (40), but they also rank 108th in seconds per play (28.5) under new head coach Jamey Chadwell. Their offense ranks an efficient seventh in yards per play (7.2), but Chadwell’s run-heavy, slow-paced scheme is exactly what sharp under bettors should be targeting. Liberty ranks fifth in rushing-play percentage (64.9%), which should keep the clock moving in a game the Flames will likely control from the get-go.
Although Chadwell’s Coastal Carolina Chanticleers were best known for their offensive firepower with quarterback Grayson McCall under center, the Chants went 17-16 to the under in conference play when McCall was in charge. Liberty ed CUSA this offseason, and Chadwell has gone 2-0 to the under in conference play as the team’s head coach. Look for him to build an early lead and maintain it on Thursday night, cashing tickets for under bettors in the process.
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The total was trading at or around 47 when the early week column went up, but the market has since settled at 45.5. As long as you’re getting a total above the key number of 45, I recommend buying the under. Parker Fleming’s model puts the total at 48, but the FEI projections have it at 40. Don’t to too crazy when it comes to bet sizing for this wager — especially not at the new number of 45.5 — but if you need some action on Thursday’s college football slate, the under for Sam Houston State-Liberty game is your best option.
Sam Houston State-Liberty Week 6 Pick: Under 45.5 -110 at DraftKings
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