The No. 10 USC Trojans and No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will do battle on the late slate this Saturday night. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
USC-Notre Dame Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 7
USC-Notre Dame Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
USC: +122 | Notre Dame: -146
USC +3: -115 | Notre Dame -3: -105
Over 60.5: -110 | Under 60.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
USC-Notre Dame Pick & Prediction
In one of the slate’s marquee matchups, the No. 10 USC Trojans will visit the No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish just lost to Louisville last weekend, and, despite making a splash in the offseason to acquire quarterback Sam Hartman, their playoff hopes are almost certainly dashed. At 6-0, USC can still make it, but they currently trail two Pac-12 teams in the AP Poll. The Trojans will need another excellent performance from star quarterback and future first-overall pick Caleb Williams, but the Notre Dame ing defense will be by far his hardest test of the short season.
Williams has some very impressive stats, to be sure. He ranks second in yards per attempt (10.9) and first in ing efficiency (205.7). He has completed a whopping 71.7% of his es and has added 124 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. However, a quick look at his opponents — San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona — reveals that he has yet to face a real defense. All of those teams rank outside the top 50 in defense in the FEI, and all but two of them rank outside the top 90. Notre Dame ranks 15th.
Unlike Williams, Hartman has faced some real defenses, but the results haven’t been pretty. He ranks a solid 19th in yards per attempt (9.4) and 16th in ing efficiency (168.6), which is good, but almost none of that production has come against Power 5 competition. He is averaging just seven yards per attempt and owns a ing efficiency grade of 121.1 when facing Power 5 competition. Fortunately, he’ll now get to tee off against a USC defense that ranks a not-so-great 57th in yards allowed per attempt (7.3) — but that’s still better than two Power 5 defenses he has faced so far, Louisville (7.5) and NC State (7.6).
I don’t put all of Hartman’s problems on him. Head coach Marcus Freeman lost my trust when he called multiple ing plays late in the Ohio State game that allowed the Buckeyes to get the ball back. Hartman is a much better quarterback than he can show in this scheme, which will hold the offense back. Likewise, USC’s offense hasn’t faced a real defense this year. Utah, Oregon State and Washington State were all able to hold USC to under 30 points last season, and I expect a similar performance from Notre Dame this weekend.
Check out the rest of our college football picks for Week 7! ➚➚
I’m playing the under for anything above 60 for a half unit. Those who tailed the early week column got this one at 61.5, but we’re now down to 60.5 at FanDuel. We’re still above that number, so I’m still recommending this play. Parker Fleming’s model projects Saturday’s USC-Notre Dame game for 70 points, the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) projects it for 69.3 points, and, according to Pregame, 66% of the tickets and 65% of the cash are on the over. That’s all cool, but despite all those projections and those betting splits, the total has still ticked down by a point. In a game where everyone expects offensive fireworks, be contrarian.
USC-Notre Dame Week 7 Pick: Under 60.5 -110 at FanDuel
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