It’s not often that the appetizer is better than the main course, but if the spread is any indication, the earlier AFC Championship Game will outshine the later NFC Championship Game. The early action features the better quarterback matchup and the defending Super Bowl Champions. It’s becoming a tradition to see the Chiefs this deep into the playoffs, while it’s the first conference title game that Lamar Jackson will see in his young, bright career. Don’t be surprised if you see guide to parlay betting.
Chiefs-Ravens Same-Game Parlay Picks
Leg 1. Rashee Rice U 6.5 Receptions (NFL Player Prop)
The Ravens boast the number one scoring defense that feasts off pressuring the quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is one of the best escape artists out of the blitz, so there should be some extra life with the Chiefs on offense. This is just an absurd number and rather unfair for Rashee Rice. The young standout might be lucky to see six targets — let alone receptions. The Ravens’ top defense isn’t just built on sacking the quarterback as they shut down number one receivers each week.
There’s not much here to think that Rice would explode for seven or eight grabs, even with the Chiefs behind in the game and throwing. Mahomes will have difficulty enough avoiding a rush, and he is much more likely to have an open Travis Kelce than Rice. The return of Mahomes to Kelce only took the playoffs to happen, but it’s certainly back. This is unfamiliar territory for the Chiefs as they are on the road this deep in the postseason. However, Andy Reid knows what wins: get the ball to Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs can generate yards on the ground with Isiah Pacheco. He’s another player who should see enough volume to just limit the chances Rice gets to tally seven receptions. Between his teammates in Kelce and Pacheco, the Ravens shutting down top wideouts, and the overall sense of urgency for Kansas City to win a road game — nothing adds up to seven grabs for Rice.
Leg 2. Travis Kelce Anytime TD (NFL Player Prop)
We are hearing Taylor Swift will be in attendance. If only that were a joke, as Kelce’s ramped-up performances seem to coincide with the mega-pop star being in attendance. Maybe it’s just a coincidence that Kelce and his quarterback do their best work this deep into the season. Let’s be honest here, as good as the Ravens’ defense is, they know — like you know — that Kelce is getting the football. Part of the beauty of watching this tandem is their ability to defy the odds.
The Ravens need to get up fast to force the Chiefs away from Pacheco — that’s not happening, see below — to limit Mahomes and his options. Of course, the Ravens will still blitz, feeding into Mahomes’ ability to evade and extend plays, most likely leading him to find Kelce. The Chiefs offense is going to take a deep shot early in this game with Kelce, too, it’s just a matter of connecting at that point.
Kelce came alive against Miami but was held scoreless, so he turned around and dropped two on Buffalo. Baltimore can’t afford to overcompensate because Mahomes will burn them with another receiver. We like Kelce to score here.
Leg 3. Isiah Pacheco Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
After watching Andy Reid neglect the run game for 14 years in Philadelphia (despite having one of the best two-way backs in Brian Westbrook for most of that time), it comes as some shock to see him keep pounding it with Pacheco.
It’s a rather amazing sight, the juxtaposition of a head coach only interested in ing — along with one of the best to ever do it — yet they realize how valuable their running back is, so they keep pounding it.
Here’s why this leg makes the most sense: the Chiefs won’t abandon the run game even if they are down 10 points in the first half. There’s going to be a healthy balance of Pacheco and throwing, primarily because the former can gash the Ravens for big plays similar to Mahomes.
The volume will be there for Pacheco to get over 62.5 rushing yards, so we add that as our final leg.
Final Chiefs-Ravens Same-Game Parlay Picks Today
Leg 1: Rashee Rice Under 6.5 Receptions
Leg 2: Travis Kelce Anytime TD
Leg 3: Isiah Pacheco Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
= +462 FanDuel
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