The Baltimore Ravens will visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, and, despite Pittsburgh’s recent success against Baltimore, the Steelers are 4.5-point home underdogs. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Ravens-Steelers betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 5 bet!
Ravens-Steelers Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 5
Ravens-Steelers Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Ravens: -188 | Steelers: +158
Ravens -3.5: -114 | Steelers +3.5: -106
Over 38.5: -105 | Under 38.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Ravens-Steelers Pick & Prediction
The Baltimore Ravens will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pennsylvania this weekend, and they’re 3.5-to-4-point favorites for the road matchup. Baltimore is 1-5 against Pittsburgh since 2020, with their lone victory coming by two points in Pittsburgh last year. Quarterback Lamar Jackson played in just two of those games. Even though Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has had the number of his Ravens counterpart, John Harbaugh, of late, I’m still fading the Steel Curtain against a new-look Ravens offense. Baltimore ranks 15th in expected points added (EPA) per play, which, while not great, is categorically better than 31st-ranked Pittsburgh.
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The Steelers have some injury issues to worry about this weekend. Quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered a knee injury last week but will play. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is also dealing with an injury, as are left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard James Daniels. Thrusting the ball into the hands of a banged-up Pickett behind a depleted offensive line won’t go well, especially not against a Baltimore defense that ranks a steady 13th in -rush win rate (47%) and fourth in EPA allowed per dropback. Pickett ranks 42nd in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/OE composite score of the 64 quarterbacks to play at least 64 snaps, trailing 13th-ranked Lamar Jackson by a significant margin.
The Pittsburgh offense is broken, and the defense doesn’t look all that great, either. Sure, edge rusher T.J. Watt is still elite, but the Steelers rank only 21st in -rush win rate as a team (41%). Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 14th in EPA allowed per play, 16th in EPA allowed per rush and 15th in EPA allowed per dropback. Their inefficient offense has allowed opposing teams to average the third-most plays per game (70.8) and third-highest time of possession (33:50), likely wearing out the defense and making their life more difficult.
There are a number of competing Ravens-Steelers betting trends to consider for this one. You’ll likely hear that the Steelers are an NFL-best 16-5-3 ATS as home underdogs since Mike Tomlin arrived in 2007 and that they’re a second-best 55-41-6 ATS in divisional games. However, the Ravens are also an NFL-best 76-53-8 ATS on the road since John Harbaugh arrived in 2008. Those trends don’t mean much to me. Pittsburgh is just 2-2-1 ATS as a home dog and 4-3 ATS in divisional games since Ben Roethlisberger retired. Meanwhile, Baltimore remains an NFL-best 9-3 ATS on the road since 2022, and they have gone 4-2 ATS as road favorites.
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I played the Ravens and Bills in a two-team moneyline parlay this week, and I recommend you do the same as long as you’re getting odds longer than +105 (48.8%). That said, I also bought the Ravens to cover. Baltimore was trading as a 3.5-point favorite when the early week column went live on Tuesday, but their advantage has since increased to 4.5. Pregame reports that the Ravens have attracted only 57% of the cash on 63% of the tickets, but I’m not surprised by that now that we’re over the key number of four. If you didn’t get the 3.5, don’t jump on this spread for more than a half-unit, and if you’re only buying one wager, buy the parlay.
Ravens-Steelers NFL Week 5 Pick: Baltimore -4.5 -105 at BetMGM
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