We ate up yesterday’s two-game slate, going 3-1 on my picks and nailing a six-piece, +1500 parlay I gave out over on Twitter, with the one loss being an unfortunate hook on the Connecticut Sun spread. The early season continues to be fun and profitable, with my picks going 16-8 through a bit over a week of WNBA action. Let’s keep it cooking today with a three-game slate as we dive into our top WNBA bets and player props today.
The Atlanta Dream host the Dallas Wings, whose endless frontcourt depth is finally paying off with star forwards Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally out with injury. Later on, the Las Vegas Aces host the still-Brittney Griner-less Phoenix Mercury in a rematch of an opening-night game that was a lot closer than many anticipated. Simultaneously, the Los Angeles Sparks host the Washington Mystics, with both teams seeking their first win of the season. I dug into these three games to find the best WNBA player prop bets for today.
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: Tuesday, May 21
Dallas Wings-Atlanta Dream Bet
When the Wings played the Sky on Saturday, I wrote a bit about how Arike Ogunbowale’s offensive role increases with the injuries to Sabally and Howard. Ogunbowale’s scoring per 100 possessions went up when not sharing the floor with both of her co-stars separately, per data from pbpstats.com, and there’s a stacking/compounding effect here with both of them out. Ogunbowale is more than comfortable being an offensive system unto herself, which she showed with a 35-point outing on Saturday.
I don’t have much more to say about this prop that I didn’t say over the weekend. Books have failed to adjust up to Ogunbowale’s scoring usage, with most currently offering her at 24.5. Let’s run her over back and sprinkle 30-plus at FanDuel, or higher if you can get it.
Best WNBA Bet for Wings-Dream: Arike Ogunbowale Over 24.5 Points
Washington Mystics-Los Angeles Sparks Bet
Like the Wings, the Mystics are quite shorthanded on scoring options right now. They were already pretty depleted in the offense department coming into the season, but with injury to guard Brittney Sykes, they’re particularly strapped.
Ariel Atkins isn’t quite as used to playing the heliocentric scoring role as Ogunbowale, but it’s the hand she’s been dealt right now. The Mystics need her to put up shots with Sykes out, and last game against the Storm, Atkins looked aggressive. She scored 19 points on 16 attempts, way up from the 9.3 attempts per game she averaged last season. Given the volume she’s seeing, I like another big scoring outing from Atkins today and will take her points over at 16.5 and her 20-plus alt as well.
Best WNBA Bet for Mystics-Sparks: Ariel Atkins Over 16.5 Points
Check out our guide to WNBA player prop betting! >>
Phoenix Mercury-Las Vegas Aces Bet
While the Mercury were able to keep their opening-day game against Las Vegas close, they did not do so by slowing down two-time MVP A’ja Wilson at all. Wilson had 30 points and 13 rebounds in Phoenix, and the Mercury lacked the tools to match up with her in the absence of Griner. Wilson absolutely cooked young center Morgan Bertsch, as I predicted in my opening day column.
With Griner still sidelined and Wilson still the MVP, I’m running this one back.
Best WNBA Bet for Mercury-Aces: A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 Points and Over 10.5 Rebounds
